Fig. 3

Markham seasonality index and interval between episodes, model fits to data. a The estimated mean interval between malaria episodes shown against the Markham seasonality index (as a measure of seasonality 0, not seasonal; 1, highly seasonal) for each of the six studies. The grey dashed line shows the line of best fit. b Markham seasonality index for each of the six studies in West Africa, against the MSI for the model-based seasonality pattern for the first administrative unit in which the site is located: Kintampo, Brong-Ahafo region; Navrongo, Upper East Region; Boussé, Kourwéogo; Kati, Koulikoro; Niakhar, Fatick; Farafenni, North Bank Division. c mean interval between malaria episodes (in days) from the six studies in West Africa, against the mean interval between episodes (in days) in model simulations for the first administrative unit in which the study site is located