Where have all the mosquito nets gone? Spatial modelling reveals mosquito net distributions across Tanzania do not target optimal Anopheles mosquito habitats

Table 1 Contribution of environmental variables to Anopheles Maxent model, including and excluding variants of temperature and NDVI

Variable	% Contribution to model	AUC with variable alone	AUC without variable	Model AUC
Model 1
Elevation	66.2	0.817	0.772	0.869
Human population distribution	28.2	0.727	0.773
Land cover	4.2	0.634	0.865
Mean temperature	1.2	0.615	0.874
Mean NDVI	0	0.593	0.869
Model 2
Elevation	65.9	0.817	0.769	0.875
Human population distribution	28.0	0.727	0.815
Land cover	4.3	0.634	0.870
Max temperature	1.4	0.546	0.876
Max NDVI	0.5	0.542	0.875
Model 3
Elevation	64.3	0.817	0.766	0.862
Human population distribution	27.1	0.727	0.800
Land cover	4.0	0.634	0.857
Min NDVI	2.9	0.606	0.875
Min temperature	1.6	0.575	0.862
Model 4
Elevation	66.5	0.812	0.764	0.872
Human population distribution	28	0.732	0.794
Land cover	5.5	0.640	0.876

Variants of temperature and NDVI (mean, maximum, minimum) were attempted in different models, but yielded similar minor contributions to the model. AUC, or area under the curve, values approaching 1 indicate the model’s perfect discrimination between suitable and unsuitable areas for the target species, and values near 0.5 indicate performance no better than random. Model 4 was retained for analyses

ISSN: 1475-2875