Fig. 3

Schematic diagrams of the processes in estimating EIR distributions and disease burden from MAP prevalence. The figure illustrates the steps involved in estimating geographic specific EIR (Method B) and incidence levels of malaria (Methods A and B), which includes the dynamic effect of treatment on transmission, and a dynamic model of clinical incidence. a, b Illustrate the process of extracting prevalence distributions from MAP [7] by pixel (5 km by 5 km) and converting to distributions of EIR using a statistical relationship relating prevalence and EIR for given levels of effective treatment derived from OpenMalaria simulations. Method A, not illustrated, is simpler in that it does not consider the effect of treatment on transmission, and uses the WMR method for estimating EIR. c Illustrates aggregation of these EIR distributions from pixel level to a larger spatial area, such as country level. d Illustrates the process of estimating country level burden for a distribution of EIR (derived from either method A or B), namely the EIR distributions are inputs to micro-simulation OpenMalaria with outputs of incidence of clinical cases (and mortality) which are calculated for a given coverage of effective treatment E₁₄. The Gaussian distributions in a–d are illustrative only