Fig. 7

Predicted incidence of clinical events by national level average EIR. Predicted incidence of clinical events estimated from empirical model (Method A) (black); the simulation models (Method B) with a common value for access to care (yellow) (E₁₄ = 0.15); and country-specific values of \(E_{14}\)(blue). a uncomplicated clinical episodes (cases); b severe malaria episodes; c hospitalizations; d deaths directly attributable to malaria; e hospital deaths; f all malaria deaths (including those with co-morbidities). All rates are expressed as events per 100,000 person years at risk over all ages of hosts. The model and parameters for severe disease and mortality follows Ross et al. [22], with a common hospitalization rate assumed for severe disease across all countries