Table 1 Parameter list and values for decision tree models
Model parameter | Symbol | Default value | Lower estimate | Upper estimate | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Setting | Baseline access to treatment (% of cases receiving ACT) | a | 30 % | 1 % | 95 % | 2011 MARC survey indicates low availability, but recently survey by PSI indicates a substantial increase |
Cost of treatment | c ACT | $3 | 1 | 10 | Wholesale price of diagnosis and treatment, consumables only.3MDG | |
Proportion of malaria cases that die in absence of treatment | μ | 1 % | 0.1 % | 10 % | Expert opinion [14] | |
Probability of getting malaria | m | 5 % | 0.1 % | 30 % | Probability of malaria is highly variable but changes do not affect comparative analysis between intervention options | |
Probability that a person with malaria uses a CHW (where available) | q | 30 % | 1 % | 95 % | Community survey by Department of Medical Research in Myanmar finds 19 % of surveyed first seek treatment at CHW (unpublished). Community survey in Cambodia finds low utilisation of CHW in villages with a CHW (Yeung et al. unpublished) | |
Mean number of disability adjusted life years lost per death | d | 30 | 15 | 45 | Assumed based on life expectancy of 65 years and knowing that most malaria deaths in Myanmar are adults | |
Village population | v | 500 | – | – | Village size is based on unpublished unicef data. At the time of the study the village level census data was unavailable | |
Intervention | Annual cost of ITN per person | c ITN | $0.70 | $0.50 | $1.5 | Estimated |
Annual cost of CHW per person | c CHW | $2 | $1.10 | $4.50 | Kyaw et al. under review | |
ITN protective efficacy | p | 30 % | 0 % | 50 % | ||
Reduction in mortality after treatment with ACT or ACT + PQ | r 1 | 90 % | 50 % | 99 % | Expert opinion |