Predictability of epidemic malaria under non-stationary conditions with process-based models combining epidemiological updates and climate variability

Table 1 Skill measures

	Kutch		Barmer		Bikaner		Jaisalmer
	Pf	Pv	Pf	Pv	Pf	Pv	Pf	Pv
Past	0.985	0.901	0.992	0.997	0.840	0.807	0.802	0.994
Future⁽¹⁾	−2.027	0.567	0.653	0.926	−0.225	0.644	0.591	0.555
Future⁽²⁾	0.463	0.785	0.979	0.749	0.064	0.709	0.913	0.407

Values of prediction skill are shown for Kutch, Barmer, Bikaner and Jaisalmer
‘Past’ skill is computed for the years 1986–2003, and the two future skills are computed for the years 2004–2011 for Kutch, and 2004–2009 for the other districts
Future skills for the two forecast methods are labelled Future⁽¹⁾ and Future⁽²⁾, respectively

ISSN: 1475-2875