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Table 6 Optimal 5-year (Y1 through Y5) sequences of interventions for the baseline efficacy scenario when the maximum coverage available for each intervention is 80 %

From: Multi-year optimization of malaria intervention: a mathematical model

Geographic

region

Number of

districts

Initial

population state

Y1 intervention

(end pop. state)

Y2 intervention

(end pop. state)

Y3 intervention

(end pop. state)

Y4 intervention

(end pop. state)

Y5 intervention

(end pop. state)

(D, L)

500

(60, 15, 25)

ACT 80 %

ACT 60 %

None

ACT 40 %

ACT 40 %

(90, 0, 10)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(D, M)

500

(60, 15, 25)

ACT 80 %

ACT 80 %

ACT 80 %

ACT 40 %

ACT 60 %

(90, 0, 10)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(D, H)

500

(60, 15, 25)

ACT 80 %

None

ACT 80 %

ACT 40 %

None

(90, 0, 10)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(M, L)

500

(15, 15, 70)

ACT 80 %

None

ACT 80 %

ACT 80 %

None

(75, 0, 25)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(M, M)

500

(15, 15, 70)

ACT 80 %

ACT 40 %

ACT 60 %

ACT 80 %

ACT 40 %

(75, 0, 25)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(M, H)

404

(15, 15, 70)

IPT 40 %

LLIN_ACT 80 %

ACT 40 %

ACT 80 %

None

(20, 15, 65)

(80, 0, 20)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(M, H)

92

(15, 15, 70)

ACT 80 %

ACT 60 %

ACT 40 %

None

None

(75, 0, 25)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(M, H)

3

(15, 15, 70)

None

LLIN_ACT 80 %

ACT 40 %

ACT 80 %

None

(15, 20, 65)

(80, 0, 20)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(W, L)

500

(10, 15, 75)

LLIN_ACT 80 %

None

ACT 40 %

ACT 80 %

ACT 80 %

(75, 0, 25)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(W, M)

500

(10, 15, 75)

None

ACT_IRS 80 %

None

ACT 60 %

ACT 60 %

(10, 15, 75)

(80, 0, 20)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(W, H)

354

(10, 15, 75)

None

ACT_IRS 80 %

ACT 40 %

ACT 40 %

None

(10, 15, 75)

(80, 0, 20)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

(W, H)

146

(10, 15, 75)

None

LLIN_ACT 80 %

None

ACT 40 %

None

(10, 15, 75)

(75, 0, 25)

(95, 0, 5)

(100, 0, 0)

(100, 0, 0)

  1. Geographic region refers to the climate region and distribution cost pair, where the climate region is dry (D), moderate (M) or wet (W), and the distribution cost is low (L), medium (M) or high (H). Number of districts refers to the number of districts that were assigned a given trajectory. Initial population state is the starting (S, I, R) percentages of the region; the end population state for a given year is the resulting (S, I, R) state after distributing the corresponding intervention. The total person-days of malaria infection in this scenario is 1.139 billion, and in all geographic regions, malaria is eradicated over the 5-year time horizon
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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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