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Table 6 Optimal 5-year (Y1 through Y5) sequences of interventions for the baseline efficacy scenario when the maximum coverage available for each intervention is 80 %

From: Multi-year optimization of malaria intervention: a mathematical model

Geographic
region
Number of
districts
Initial
population state
Y1 intervention
(end pop. state)
Y2 intervention
(end pop. state)
Y3 intervention
(end pop. state)
Y4 intervention
(end pop. state)
Y5 intervention
(end pop. state)
(D, L) 500 (60, 15, 25) ACT 80 % ACT 60 % None ACT 40 % ACT 40 %
(90, 0, 10) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(D, M) 500 (60, 15, 25) ACT 80 % ACT 80 % ACT 80 % ACT 40 % ACT 60 %
(90, 0, 10) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(D, H) 500 (60, 15, 25) ACT 80 % None ACT 80 % ACT 40 % None
(90, 0, 10) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(M, L) 500 (15, 15, 70) ACT 80 % None ACT 80 % ACT 80 % None
(75, 0, 25) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(M, M) 500 (15, 15, 70) ACT 80 % ACT 40 % ACT 60 % ACT 80 % ACT 40 %
(75, 0, 25) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(M, H) 404 (15, 15, 70) IPT 40 % LLIN_ACT 80 % ACT 40 % ACT 80 % None
(20, 15, 65) (80, 0, 20) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(M, H) 92 (15, 15, 70) ACT 80 % ACT 60 % ACT 40 % None None
(75, 0, 25) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(M, H) 3 (15, 15, 70) None LLIN_ACT 80 % ACT 40 % ACT 80 % None
(15, 20, 65) (80, 0, 20) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(W, L) 500 (10, 15, 75) LLIN_ACT 80 % None ACT 40 % ACT 80 % ACT 80 %
(75, 0, 25) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(W, M) 500 (10, 15, 75) None ACT_IRS 80 % None ACT 60 % ACT 60 %
(10, 15, 75) (80, 0, 20) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(W, H) 354 (10, 15, 75) None ACT_IRS 80 % ACT 40 % ACT 40 % None
(10, 15, 75) (80, 0, 20) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
(W, H) 146 (10, 15, 75) None LLIN_ACT 80 % None ACT 40 % None
(10, 15, 75) (75, 0, 25) (95, 0, 5) (100, 0, 0) (100, 0, 0)
  1. Geographic region refers to the climate region and distribution cost pair, where the climate region is dry (D), moderate (M) or wet (W), and the distribution cost is low (L), medium (M) or high (H). Number of districts refers to the number of districts that were assigned a given trajectory. Initial population state is the starting (SIR) percentages of the region; the end population state for a given year is the resulting (SIR) state after distributing the corresponding intervention. The total person-days of malaria infection in this scenario is 1.139 billion, and in all geographic regions, malaria is eradicated over the 5-year time horizon