Fig. 1

Relative abundance of each vector species predicted by the multinomial generalized additive model (no control). Plot a shows An. arabiensis, plot b shows An. funestus and plot c shows An. gambiae/An. coluzzii. The relative abundances for each cell across all three maps sums to one where any vector species is present, or zero where all species are absent. The extent of the predictions are restrained to the probability of presence extents as predicted by the BRT outputs [15], where probability of presence ≥0.5. These, in turn were restricted in the original maps by masking the predictions at a buffer of 1500 km. When interpreting these maps, note they do not show absolute abundance. For example, despite a clear presence of An. funestus on the northern fringes of the Sahel, the maps are showing it is more abundant than both An. arabiensis and An. gambiae but not that it is found in abundance. Conversely, the An. funestus map shows that it is less abundant than An. gambiae in central Africa, not that it does not exist here (An. gambiae and An. funestus are both highly efficient and dangerous vectors in central Africa)