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Table 1 The impact of elimination programme on malaria incidence in Iran; comparison of two time periods

From: Assessment of the impact of the malaria elimination programme on the burden of disease morbidity in endemic areas of Iran

  Pre-elimination phasea Elimination phasea Interactionc (P value)
IRRb CI P value IRR CI P value
Total cases 0.919 0.917 0.922 0.0001 0.738 0.727 0.750 0.0001 0.0001
P. vivax 0.938 0.936 0.940 0.0001 0.739 0.727 0.751 0.0001 0.0001
P. falciparum 0.800 0.795 0.806 0.0001 0.735 0.708 0.764 0.0001 0.0001
Autochthonousd 0.924 0.922 0.927 0.0001 0.645 0.630 0.661 0.0001 0.0001
Imported 0.907 0.903 0.912 0.0001 0.817 0.800 0.833 0.0001 0.0001
Iranian 0.943 0.940 0.945 0.0001 0.734 0.719 0.749 0.0001 0.0001
Non-Iranian 0.823 0.818 0.827 0.0001 0.744 0.726 0.762 0.0001 0.0001
  1. aPre-elimination phase: 2001–2009; Elimination phase: 2010–2015
  2. bIncidence Rate Ratio for the linear effects of time (year), which indicates that how much malaria incidence of a certain year has changed compared to the previous year, on average. A value of 1 indicates that the incidence has remained roughly constant, and values less than 1 indicate a declining trend in the incidence; the more this value grows smaller, the higher will be the decline rate
  3. cInteraction between phase and year; the small P-value (less than 0.05) of this coefficient indicates the significant difference of the risk ratio of annual incidence decline in the pre-elimination to the elimination phase, it can, therefore, be concluded that for all the compared groups, the speed of annual decline rate in the elimination phase was significantly higher than the previous phase
  4. dLocal malaria transmission in the endemic counties