Fig. 6

Probability of infecting a susceptible mosquito if bitten, plotted against age. a Data from mosquito feeding studies in areas of high transmission. Burkina Faso—annual EIR between 25 and 350 [16]; Cameroon—EIR of around 170 in both villages [17]; Kenya—parasite prevalence above 80 % in children [18]. b Estimated using an empirical model fitted to feeding studies and data on gametocytes and asexual parasites [19]. c Griffin model at EIRs of 1 or 100, with no treatment or 80 % treatment probability per symptomatic infection. The shaded area is the 95 % credible interval for an EIR of 100 and 80 % treatment. d OpenMalaria base model (model 001) at EIRs of 1 or 100, with no treatment or 40 % treatment probability per 5 day time-step