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Table 1 Examples of minimum target product profiles and market size

From: Development of new malaria diagnostics: matching performance and need

  Cost per processed sample (USD) LLOD Market size
Case management (O): ≤$1.00 (M): ≤$1.00 (O) < 5 p/µL (elimination) (M) 100–200 p/µL 171 million slides examined via microscopy [10]
Parasite screening (O): ≤$1.00 (M): ≤$5.00 (O) ≤ 2 p/µLa (M) < 20 p/µL (LAMP, PCR achieve 1–2 p/µL) ~33 million people (within low-prevalence infection foci. Conservative estimate) [11]. Potential 1.5–8 million tests each year
Population screening (O): ≤$1.00 (M): ≤$5.00 (O) ≤ 2 p/µLa (M) < 20 p/µL (LAMP, PCR achieve 1–2 p/µL) 7000–10,000 cases surveyed [12]
Research/drug monitoring Depends on application (O) ≤ 5 p/µL (ex: drug trials)a (M) ≤ 5 p/µL (ex: drug trials)a Approximately 250 TES sites (~50/100 countries actually conducting TES). Numbers for wider research market unclearb
Microscopy quality control (O): ≤$1.00 (M): ≤$1.00 (O): < 10 p/µL (M): 50 p/µL 29 million slides cross‐checkedc
Non-endemic countries (O): ≤$1.00 (M): ≤$5.00 (O) ≤ 2 p/µLa (M) < 20 p/µL (LAMP, PCR achieve 1–2 p/µL) 30,000 suspected cases (screens) in USA. 200,000 suspected cases in Western Europed
  1. All values are dependent on program capacity and epidemiological setting
  2. O optimum, M minimum
  3. aRefer to Additional file 1: Annex S1 for exceptions and further details
  4. bIf we assume 4 sites per country, in around 50 endemic countries that actually run them. On top of that, around 50 research studies each year
  5. cBased on unpublished estimates done by the authors using data from the World Malaria Report 2012 and 2013
  6. dBased on unpublished estimates by the authors using data from Askling et al. [72]