Fig. 1

Proportional reductions in malaria case incidence in 0–4-year-olds, 1–3 years after intervention scale-up. a ITNs, b IRS, c case management, d SMC. The four hypothetical provinces had seasonality values at the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of seasonality CVs across Admin1 units in sub-Saharan Africa [2, 28]; for each of these two seasonality CV values, selected PfPR values were the 10th and 90th percentile of distributions of simulated PfPR in 2–9 years averaged over 2000–2002 in the subset of OpenMalaria scenarios with 0 % initial coverage of all interventions: i.e. for a low seasonality CV of 0.2, PfPR values of 11 and 82 %; and for the high seasonality CV of 2.5, PfPR values of 0.3 and 71 %, respectively