Coefficient of variation^{,} i.e. ratio of standard deviation of the simulated distribution to the mean (does not depend on the statistical model)
 
125 %

129 %

138 %

279 %

Variance in simulated outcomes (does not depend on statistical model)
 
1.1

1.2

1.04e−4

3.1e−6

Selected (best) model: simulated 0 values imputed and remaining results rescaled in the range 0–0.99

MSE, from outofsample prediction^{a}

7.5 %

17.0 %

43.4 %

73.3 %

Adjusted R^{2}

96.5 %

92.7 %

90.3 %

74.1 %

MSE as % of simulated variance

12.6 %

17.9 %

52.0 %

73.9 %

Simulated 0 values dropped and remaining results rescaled in the range 0–0.99

Adjusted R^{2}

96.6 %

92.2 %

86.8 %

70.1 %

MSE as % of simulated variance

19.3 %

28.4 %

72.2 %

75.0 %

Dropping EIR and model variant (the two variables with no country data)

Adjusted R^{2}

88.4 %

80.4 %

72.7 %

42.6 %

MSE as % of simulated variance

75.1 %

406 %

142 %

89.8 %

Logtransformation instead of logittransformation of health outcomes

Adjusted R^{2}

96.0 %

93.0 %

90.6 %

77.1 %

MSE as % of simulated variance

37.9 %

324 %

405 %

75.3 %
