Statistical model | Metric | Health burden outcome, and time period from intervention start | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Case incidence 0–4 years, years 1–3 | Case incidence 0–4 years, years 4–6 | Malaria mortality 0–4 years, years 8–10 | Malaria mortality 15+ years, years 8–10 | ||
Coefficient of variation, i.e. ratio of standard deviation of the simulated distribution to the mean (does not depend on the statistical model) | Â | 125Â % | 129Â % | 138Â % | 279Â % |
Variance in simulated outcomes (does not depend on statistical model) |  | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.04e−4 | 3.1e−6 |
Selected (best) model: simulated 0 values imputed and remaining results re-scaled in the range 0–0.99 | MSE, from out-of-sample predictiona | 7.5 % | 17.0 % | 43.4 % | 73.3 % |
Adjusted R2 | 96.5Â % | 92.7Â % | 90.3Â % | 74.1Â % | |
MSE as  % of simulated variance | 12.6 % | 17.9 % | 52.0 % | 73.9 % | |
Simulated 0 values dropped and remaining results re-scaled in the range 0–0.99 | Adjusted R2 | 96.6 % | 92.2 % | 86.8 % | 70.1 % |
MSE as  % of simulated variance | 19.3 % | 28.4 % | 72.2 % | 75.0 % | |
Dropping EIR and model variant (the two variables with no country data) | Adjusted R2 | 88.4Â % | 80.4Â % | 72.7Â % | 42.6Â % |
MSE as  % of simulated variance | 75.1 % | 406 % | 142 % | 89.8 % | |
Log-transformation instead of logit-transformation of health outcomes | Adjusted R2 | 96.0Â % | 93.0Â % | 90.6Â % | 77.1Â % |
MSE as  % of simulated variance | 37.9 % | 324 % | 405 % | 75.3 % |