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Table 2 Estimated annual malaria cases around large dams in sub-Saharan Africa in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using two future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5)

From: Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate

Climate scenario/malaria stability 2010 2020s 2050s 2080s
Number malaria cases <5 km Number malaria cases attributable to presence of dams Number malaria cases <5 km Number malaria cases (assuming similar case rate as >5 km) Number malaria cases attributable to presence of dams Number malaria cases <5 km Number malaria cases (assuming similar case rate as >5 km) Number malaria cases attributable to presence of dams Number malaria cases <5 km Number malaria cases (assuming similar case rate as >5 km) Number malaria cases attributable to presence of dams
RCP 2.6
 Stable 1,337,979 203,718 2,221,953 1,794,093 427,860 3,008,238 2,369,683 638,555 3,763,321 3,006,427 718,070
 Unstable 1,337,956 919,281 1,204,302 416,290 788,012 2,402,874 937,677 1,465,197 3,052,593 1,660,640 1,656,318
 Total 2,675,935 1,122,999 3,426,255 2,210,383 1,215,872 5,411,112 2,307,360 2,103,752 6,815,914 5,067,067 2,374,388
RCP 8.5
 Stable 1,337,979 203,718 2,507,720 1,905,353 602,367 3,162,273 2,312,261 850,013 4,007,444 3,406,427 601,017
 Unstable 1,337,956 919,281 1,624,363 535,513 1,088,850 4,051,684 1,919,967 2,131,717 4,976,346 2,606,657 2,369,689
 Total 2,675,935 1,122,999 4,132,083 2,520,866 1,611,217 7,213,957 4,232,228 2,981,730 8,983,790 6,013,084 2,970,706