Table 2 Estimated annual malaria cases around large dams in sub-Saharan Africa in the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using two future climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5)
From: Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate
Climate scenario/malaria stability | 2010 | 2020s | 2050s | 2080s | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number malaria cases <5Â km | Number malaria cases attributable to presence of dams | Number malaria cases <5Â km | Number malaria cases (assuming similar case rate as >5Â km) | Number malaria cases attributable to presence of dams | Number malaria cases <5Â km | Number malaria cases (assuming similar case rate as >5Â km) | Number malaria cases attributable to presence of dams | Number malaria cases <5Â km | Number malaria cases (assuming similar case rate as >5Â km) | Number malaria cases attributable to presence of dams | |
RCP 2.6 | |||||||||||
 Stable | 1,337,979 | 203,718 | 2,221,953 | 1,794,093 | 427,860 | 3,008,238 | 2,369,683 | 638,555 | 3,763,321 | 3,006,427 | 718,070 |
 Unstable | 1,337,956 | 919,281 | 1,204,302 | 416,290 | 788,012 | 2,402,874 | 937,677 | 1,465,197 | 3,052,593 | 1,660,640 | 1,656,318 |
 Total | 2,675,935 | 1,122,999 | 3,426,255 | 2,210,383 | 1,215,872 | 5,411,112 | 2,307,360 | 2,103,752 | 6,815,914 | 5,067,067 | 2,374,388 |
RCP 8.5 | |||||||||||
 Stable | 1,337,979 | 203,718 | 2,507,720 | 1,905,353 | 602,367 | 3,162,273 | 2,312,261 | 850,013 | 4,007,444 | 3,406,427 | 601,017 |
 Unstable | 1,337,956 | 919,281 | 1,624,363 | 535,513 | 1,088,850 | 4,051,684 | 1,919,967 | 2,131,717 | 4,976,346 | 2,606,657 | 2,369,689 |
 Total | 2,675,935 | 1,122,999 | 4,132,083 | 2,520,866 | 1,611,217 | 7,213,957 | 4,232,228 | 2,981,730 | 8,983,790 | 6,013,084 | 2,970,706 |