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Table 3 Increases in malaria cases around SSA dams due to population growth and climate change in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in two RCPs (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5)

From: Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate

  2020s 2050s 2080s
Additional malaria cases due to population increase (%)a Additional malaria cases due to climate change (%) Total additional malaria cases due to population increase and climate change Additional malaria cases due to population increase (%) Additional malaria cases due to climate change (%) Total additional malaria cases due to population increase and climate change Additional malaria cases due to population increase (%) Additional malaria cases due to climate change (%) Total additional malaria cases due to population increase and climate change
RCP 2.6
 Stable 205,158 (42) 281,234 (58) 486,392 638,737 (57) 491,522 (43) 1,130,259 956,028 (40) 1,429,314 (60) 2,385,342
 Unstable 118,080 (46) 136,618 (54) 254,698 457,695 (43) 607,223 (57) 1,064,918 762,895 (44) 951,742 (56) 1,714,637
 Total 323,238 (41) 457,851 (59) 781,089 1,096,432 (50) 1,098,745 (50) 2,195,177 1,718,923 (42) 2,381,056 (58) 4,099,979
RCP 8.5
 Stable 586,606 (61) 373,335 (39) 959,941 777,538 (43) 1,046,756 (57) 1,824,294 1,185,557 (44) 1,483,908 (56) 2,669,465
 Unstable 147,623 (43) 198,784 (57) 346,407 633,930 (28) 1,634,556 (72) 2,268,486 823,481 (27) 2,200,442 (73) 3,023,923
 Total 834,229 (59) 572,119 (41) 1,406,348 1,411,468 (34) 2,681,312 (66) 4,092,780 2,009,038 (35) 3,684,350 (65) 5,693,388
  1. a% is calculated from total additional cases due to population increase and climate change