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Table 3 Increases in malaria cases around SSA dams due to population growth and climate change in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s in two RCPs (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5)

From: Malaria and large dams in sub-Saharan Africa: future impacts in a changing climate

 

2020s

2050s

2080s

Additional malaria cases due to population increase (%)a

Additional malaria cases due to climate change (%)

Total additional malaria cases due to population increase and climate change

Additional malaria cases due to population increase (%)

Additional malaria cases due to climate change (%)

Total additional malaria cases due to population increase and climate change

Additional malaria cases due to population increase (%)

Additional malaria cases due to climate change (%)

Total additional malaria cases due to population increase and climate change

RCP 2.6

 Stable

205,158 (42)

281,234 (58)

486,392

638,737 (57)

491,522 (43)

1,130,259

956,028 (40)

1,429,314 (60)

2,385,342

 Unstable

118,080 (46)

136,618 (54)

254,698

457,695 (43)

607,223 (57)

1,064,918

762,895 (44)

951,742 (56)

1,714,637

 Total

323,238 (41)

457,851 (59)

781,089

1,096,432 (50)

1,098,745 (50)

2,195,177

1,718,923 (42)

2,381,056 (58)

4,099,979

RCP 8.5

 Stable

586,606 (61)

373,335 (39)

959,941

777,538 (43)

1,046,756 (57)

1,824,294

1,185,557 (44)

1,483,908 (56)

2,669,465

 Unstable

147,623 (43)

198,784 (57)

346,407

633,930 (28)

1,634,556 (72)

2,268,486

823,481 (27)

2,200,442 (73)

3,023,923

 Total

834,229 (59)

572,119 (41)

1,406,348

1,411,468 (34)

2,681,312 (66)

4,092,780

2,009,038 (35)

3,684,350 (65)

5,693,388

  1. a% is calculated from total additional cases due to population increase and climate change