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Table 1 Variables in climate change and malaria transmission identified from literature review and expert consultation

From: An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa

No Variables Description Source
Biophysical variables
1 Air temperature Air temperature suitable for malaria transmission i.e. between 16 and 34 °C [17, 32, 48, 5761]
2 Water temperature Mosquito habitat temperature suitable for breeding [60, 6264]
3 El-Nino Periods of extreme rainfall [1416, 48, 65]
4 Average rainfall/precipitation Mean monthly rainfall of at least 150 mm; rainfall season [9, 17, 21, 31, 48, 61, 66, 67]
5 Relative humidity Amount of water vapour present in air [6871]
6 Altitude Height/distance above sea level [36, 48, 69, 70, 72]
7 Micro-habitat changes Changes in mosquito habitat micro-climate due to loss of forest cover or other environmental controls such as clearing of bushes [63, 6870, 7378]
8 Topography Physical land surface including hills and valleys, elevation [33, 48, 79, 80]
9 Topographic wetness index Percentage of ground water saturation of at least 5% for suitable mosquito breeding site [30, 31]
10 Wetlands and water bodies Proximity to swamps and other stagnant water bodies [33, 63, 68, 74, 76, 77, 81]
11 Bare areas Land without forest cover or other vegetation [33, 82, 83]
12 Forest edge Human proximity to forest boundaries and potential exposure to exposed mosquito breeding sites due to deforestation [33, 62]
13 Agriculture Land clearance, planting, livestock and maize farming, swamp drainage and farming, and water management i.e. water conservation using shallow wells, small-scale irrigation and creation of water drainage channels [31, 33, 48, 49, 76, 77, 8487]
14 Vector abundance Increase in numbers of malaria mosquitoes [32, 60, 82, 88]
15 Vector biting Likelihood of an infective bite from a mosquito [48, 70, 82]
16 Vector infection rate Efficiency of transmission and infection with the malaria parasite by the mosquito [48, 73, 82]
17 Vector adaptive behaviour Changes in mosquito vector behaviour such as early biting or indoor resting Expert input
18 Population under 5 years Number of individuals under 5 years old [48, 49, 74]
19 Immune status Lowered immunity to malaria due to pregnancy or inexposure; acquired immunity to malaria from long term exposure [48, 49, 79, 89, 90]
20 Interactions Co-infections with other diseases such as HIV increase likelihood and severity of infection [15, 50]
21 Drug resistance Resistance of the malaria parasite to drugs/parasite evolution [15, 48, 50]
Socio-economic variables
22 Urbanisation Expansion of urban areas and overcrowding in cities [49]
23 Population migration/travel Movement of people from low risk areas to malaria-endemic or epidemic-prone areas and vice versa [48, 50]
24 Nutritional status Poor health as a result of undernutrition or malnutrition [48, 49]
25 Gender Gender roles, expectations and cultural customs [48, 49]
26 Poverty Socio-economic conditions; household income, food and household assets [15, 48, 49, 74]
27 Religious beliefs Religion or superstitions in understanding or managing malaria and/or climate change impacts [15, 49]
28 Perception Knowledge and understanding of disease [15, 33, 49]
29 Type of house House with grass-thatched roof and mud walls (semi-permanent) or Bbrick house with tiled or aluminium roof (permanent); house with separate kitchen, house with ceiling and house with open eaves [33, 48, 49]
30 Education level of household head Education level of male or female head of household [33]
31 Health-seeking behaviour Willingness to seek treatment for malaria; households with malaria medicine in stock, self-medication, tradition/cultural norms and practices in malaria management [48, 49]
32 Net use Use of insecticide-treated bed nets to prevent malaria infection [15, 33, 74]
33 Environmental controls Keeping area around the houses cleared of shrubs and other overgrowth; safe disposal of plastics and other water-retaining containers [15, 33]
34 Quality of health systems Health services and policy; availability of health facilities; access to healthcare; quality of healthcare and capacity for malaria treatment [15, 47, 48, 50]
35 Malaria vector control Distribution and coverage of insecticide-treated bed nets by the government; coverage of households sprayed with malaria insecticide (indoor residual spraying) [15, 48]
36 Quality of information Reliable and easy to understand information systems for communicating weather and climate information or early warning systems for malaria epidemics [15, 17, 50]