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Table 2 Comparison of 1-step ahead models with and without external regressors

From: Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence

ARIMA model

Lag-2 EVI coefficient

Standard error

AIC

MSE

Model 1

  

−145.02

0.0088

Model 1 with Lag-2 EVI

0.6287

0.4719

−121.99

0.0142

Model 2

  

−132.18

0.0098

Model 2 with Lag-2 EVI

0.1728

0.7304

−147.92

0.0086