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TableĀ 1 Country and sub-national data pre-loaded in Spectrum-Malaria

From: Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Indicator

Age group

Unit used in Spectrum

Data source and comment

PfPR

2ā€“9Ā years

% of children infected, as weighed median for the Admin1 population, after excluding the population living at 0.0 PfPR

MAP. The category with 0 PfPR, and its exclusion from the Admin1ā€²s weighted median PfPR, are needed to convert burden and coverage rate between the population withĀ >Ā 0 PfPR in Spectrum (onto which OpenMalaria-based impact regressions are applied) and WHO official country estimates which includes populations with 0 PfPR

Case incidence

0ā€“4, 5ā€“14 and 15+Ā years

Population-weighted average rate, for population living atĀ >0 PfPR a

WHO national estimates, allocated across Admin1Ā s, according to case incidence and population size distributions estimated by MAP for that year. 2014 rates applied in 2015

Malaria-attributable mortality

<5 andĀ ā‰„5Ā years

Population-weighted average rate, for population living atĀ >0 PfPR a

WHO national estimates for 0ā€“4 vs 5+Ā years, allocated by Avenir Health to Admin1Ā s and the 5ā€“14 vs 15+Ā years sub-age groups, according to distribution in case incidence from MAP for that year. 2014 rates applied in 2015

Seasonality index CV_MAP_EIR

N/A

Population-weighted average, for population living atĀ >0 PfPR a

Swiss TPH and MAP

See Additional file 1. Time-constant

Population who slept under an ITN last night

All age total

Population-weighted average, in two variants:

1. Actual (including population living at 0 PfPR a ) to inform ITN distributions for costing;

2. Effective coverage (limited to population living atĀ >0 PfPR a ), used for impact calculation

MAP and WHO [31, 32]

N.B. Unlike Bhatt and colleaguesā€™ 2015 national-level estimates, the MAP and Spectrum ITN coverage data at pixel and Admin1 unit level did not assume that ā€˜all ITNs are distributed among households situated in malaria-endemic regionsā€™

IRS: % of people protected

All age total

Population-weighted average, in two variants:

National (including population living at 0 PfPR a, for whom 0 ITN usage is assumed);

Effective coverage (limited to population living atĀ >0 PfPR a )

WHO. Allocated from WHOā€™s national total to Admin1Ā s through the algorithm shown in TableĀ 3

For 2015, calculate coverage based on the WHO-reported number of people protected in 2014

Case management coverage, uncomplicated cases

All age total

Population-weighted average, constant across all Admin1 units in a country, irrespective of PfPR

National estimate for 2015 of the proportion of fevers in children 0-4Ā years treated with an ACT [26], applied at 2014 and 2015 and to all age groups.

Population size

0ā€“4Ā years, 5ā€“14 years, 15+Ā years

Total, including people atĀ >0 PfPR

MAP, for both total population, and population atĀ >0 PfPR

  1. PfPR at province level is calculated on all pixels in the province with PfPRĀ >0. It is the weighted median PfPR over all these pixels, with pixels weighted by their population aged 2ā€“9Ā years. Avenir Health prepared but did not use an alternative method: the populations of all pixels at PfPRĀ >0 are pooled, with each ā€˜personā€™ in the pool assigned their pixelā€™s PfPR, and taking the median PfPR of the pool. The difference is less than 1% for most provinces, therefore the more intuitive method was selected
  2. Case incidence rates are calculated using whole population (not population at PfPRĀ >0). MAPā€™s case incidence is always zero for pixels at PfPRĀ =Ā 0; same for Avenir Healthā€™ interpolated malaria death rates, because where there are no malaria cases there can be no malaria deaths
  3. ITN coverage is calculated for both the whole population (ā€˜ITNactualā€™ in Spectrumā€™s user interface) and for the population at PfPRĀ >0 (ā€˜ITNeffā€™)
  4. IRS coverage is being calculated with the whole population as denominator, rather than population at PfPRĀ >0
  5. The number protected by IRS in 2015 is taken to be that reported by NMPs to WHO in 2014 or if 2014 not available, then 2013. If the values in both 2013 and 2014 are missing or zero, Spectrum assumes 0 IRS coverage in 2015 too
  6. Allocation of national IRS numbers protected across provinces is inversely proportion to the past three yearsā€™ average of ā€˜ITNeffā€™
  7. Seasonality values are calculated across all pixels (i.e., not as ā€˜effectiveā€™ Seasonality on pixels with PfPRĀ >0 only)
  8. aSpectrum impact projections are done using as driver/predictor, the effective coverages in populations with PfPRĀ >0, because only populations with PfPRĀ >0 were simulated in OpenMalaria, and coverage-impact relationships derived from OpenMalaria thus apply to populations with malaria transmission (i.e. PfPRĀ >0, in most years) only