Skip to main content

Table 3 Health outcomes projected for Nigeria, during scale-up of ITN coverage from 27% at 2015 to 80% from 2020

From: Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Year 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022–2030a Unit Rate ratio, 2022/2015 Absolute numbers, 2015
Age 0–4 years
 All cases 873 866 812 691 607 551 512 486 341 Per 1000 0.39 27,851,814
 Uncomplicated cases 800 794 745 635 558 507 472 448 316 Per 1000 0.40 25,532,547
 Severe cases 73 72 67 56 49 44 40 38 24 Per 1000 0.33 2,319,267
 Deaths 335 318 299 255 224 203 187 176 141 Per 100,000 0.44 102,368
Age 5–15 years
 All cases 380 374 351 301 266 245 231 223 185 Per 1000 0.50 18,439,829
 Uncomplicated cases 370 364 342 293 260 239 226 218 182 Per 1000 0.50 17,959,175
 Severe cases 10 10 9.1 7.6 6.5 5.8 5.4 5.1 3.4 Per 1000 0.35 480,654
 Deaths 15 15 14 12 11 10 10 10 10 Per 100,000 0.66 7484
Age 15+ years
 All cases 146 146 137 118 105 98 93 91 75 Per 1000 0.51 14,890,633
 Uncomplicated cases 145 145 136 117 105 97 93 91 74 Per 1000 0.51 14,800,267
 Severe cases 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 Per 1000 0.33 90,365
 Deaths 5.9 5.9 5.5 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.9 Per 100,000 0.66 6043
All ages
 All cases 336 333 312 266 234 214 200 192 148 Per 1000 0.44 61,182,276
 Uncomplicated cases 321 318 297 254 224 205 192 184 143 Per 1000 0.45 58,291,990
 Severe cases 16 16 15 12 10 9.3 8.5 7.9 5.0 Per 1000 0.32 2890,286
 Deaths 66 63 59 50 43 39 36 34 28 Per 100,000 0.44 115,894
 PfPR 2–9 years 27 27 25 22 19 18 17 16 11 % 0.41  
  1. aSame projected annual rates every year over 2022 throughout 2030