Spectrum-Malaria: a user-friendly projection tool for health impact assessment and strategic planning by malaria control programmes in sub-Saharan Africa

Table 3 Health outcomes projected for Nigeria, during scale-up of ITN coverage from 27% at 2015 to 80% from 2020

Year	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022–2030^a	Unit	Rate ratio, 2022/2015	Absolute numbers, 2015
Age 0–4 years
All cases	873	866	812	691	607	551	512	486	341	Per 1000	0.39	27,851,814
Uncomplicated cases	800	794	745	635	558	507	472	448	316	Per 1000	0.40	25,532,547
Severe cases	73	72	67	56	49	44	40	38	24	Per 1000	0.33	2,319,267
Deaths	335	318	299	255	224	203	187	176	141	Per 100,000	0.44	102,368
Age 5–15 years
All cases	380	374	351	301	266	245	231	223	185	Per 1000	0.50	18,439,829
Uncomplicated cases	370	364	342	293	260	239	226	218	182	Per 1000	0.50	17,959,175
Severe cases	10	10	9.1	7.6	6.5	5.8	5.4	5.1	3.4	Per 1000	0.35	480,654
Deaths	15	15	14	12	11	10	10	10	10	Per 100,000	0.66	7484
Age 15+ years
All cases	146	146	137	118	105	98	93	91	75	Per 1000	0.51	14,890,633
Uncomplicated cases	145	145	136	117	105	97	93	91	74	Per 1000	0.51	14,800,267
Severe cases	0.9	0.9	0.8	0.7	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	0.3	Per 1000	0.33	90,365
Deaths	5.9	5.9	5.5	4.6	4.1	3.7	3.5	3.4	3.9	Per 100,000	0.66	6043
All ages
All cases	336	333	312	266	234	214	200	192	148	Per 1000	0.44	61,182,276
Uncomplicated cases	321	318	297	254	224	205	192	184	143	Per 1000	0.45	58,291,990
Severe cases	16	16	15	12	10	9.3	8.5	7.9	5.0	Per 1000	0.32	2890,286
Deaths	66	63	59	50	43	39	36	34	28	Per 100,000	0.44	115,894
PfPR 2–9 years	27	27	25	22	19	18	17	16	11	%	0.41

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