Fig. 2

The estimation of non-linear patterns between rainfall and malaria incidences in the exposure dimension. The Y-axis represents the logarithm value of the relative risk ratio compared to the reference rainfall 0.0 mm. The solid line is the estimated non-linear curve, with dashed lines indicating its 95% confidence interval. On the one hand, the solid lines in the top 3 rows shows the scenarios for the 6th week lag (red line, a–c), the 9th week lag (blue line, d–f) and the 12th week lag (green line, g–i), while the fourth row shows the difference among the results at the 6th, 9th and 12th week lags (j–l). The first three panels in each column represent the specific rainfall level at the fourth week lag. Specifically, the columns of (a, d, g, j), (b, e, h, k) and (c, f, i, l) are for the low, medium and the high rainfall levels at the fourth week lag, respectively. The range of X-axis depends on the corresponding observed range of rainfall