Effect of anti-malarial interventions on trends of malaria cases, hospital admissions and deaths, 2005–2015, Ghana

Aregawi, Maru; Malm, Keziah L.; Wahjib, Mohammed; Kofi, Osae; Allotey, Naa-Korkor; Yaw, Peprah Nana; Abba-Baffoe, Wilmot; Segbaya, Sylvester; Owusu-Antwi, Felicia; Kharchi, Abderahmane T.; Williams, Ryan O.; Saalfeld, Mark; Workneh, Nibretie; Shargie, Estifanos Biru; Noor, Abdisalan M.; Bart-Plange, Constance

doi:10.1186/s12936-017-1828-6

Table 2 Percentage change in malaria cases, admissions and deaths, and test positivity rate in 2015 period 1 compared to pre-scale-up period (2005–2010) period 1, by epidemiological zone in given number of health facilities (HF) with complete data 2005–2015, Ghana

From: Effect of anti-malarial interventions on trends of malaria cases, hospital admissions and deaths, 2005–2015, Ghana

Stratum	No of HFs	Indicator	All ages				Under 5
			Baseline	Observed values	Observed relative change (%)	Predicted relative change compared to baseline (%)	Baseline	Observed values	Observed relative change (%)	Predicted relative change compared to baseline (%)
			Ave (2005−2010) P1	2015 P1	2015 P1	2015 P1	Ave (2005−2010) P1	2015 P1	2015 P1	2015 1
Coastal	30	Outpatient malaria cases	215,920	193,102	−11	−57 (−71 to −37)^†	42,069	43,377	3	−52 (−70 to −25)^†
		Malaria admissions	17,722	17,607	−1	−40 (−58 to −14)^†	7596	8284	9	−26 (−49 to 7)
		Malaria deaths	505	181	−64	−68 (−84 to −35)^†	192	56	−71	−57 (−76 to −22)^†
		Anaemia inpatients	3773	4985	32	14 (−37 to 107)	1509	1879	25	4 (−55 to 144)
		Anaemia deaths	205	281	37	74 (12 to 171)	82	64	−21	39 (−8 to 109)
		Tested (Mic)	89,297	136,568	53	25 (−31 to 129)	46,182	135,576	194
		Positive (Mic)	29,615	42,550	44	−16 (−40 to 16)	24,319	57,544	137
		Test positivity rate (mic)	34	31	−9	−33 (−58 to 7)	54	42	−22
		Proportion of outpatients	29	21	−28	−23 (−43 to 2)	46	30	−34	−31 (−43 to −17)^†
		Proportion of inpatients	21	16	−24	−34 (−55 to −3)^†	47	34	−28	−36 (−46 to −24)^†
		Proportion of deaths	17	5	−72	−76 (−90 to −42)^†	29	7	−77	−73 (−86 to −47)^†
		Non-malaria outpatient	718,045	871,851	21	−45 (−64 to −17)^†	68,351	86,222	26	−42 (−68 to 3)
		Non-malaria inpatients	67,327	94,489	40	0 (−17 to 21)	8499	16,124	90	61 (14 to 128)
		Non-malaria deaths	2493	3622	45	56 (8 to 127)	462	769	66	100 (22 to 229)
Forest	30	Outpatient malaria cases	235,523	197,145	−16	−57 (−65 to −48)^†	50,020	51,668	3	−46 (−62 to −25)^†
		Malaria admissions	19,887	31,406	58	−27 (−46 to −1)^†	8162	12,748	56	−44 (−70 to 5)
		Malaria deaths	222	89	−60	−67 (−78 to −49)^†	101	31	−69	−81 (−88 to −69)^†
		Anaemia inpatients	3597	11,377	216	32 (−9 to 92)	1887	4280	127	8 (−36 to 81)
		Anaemia deaths	142	165	16	−20 (−63 to 72)	43	42	−2	−45 (−77 to 31)
	24	Tested (Mic)	28,702	29,626	3	−70 (−89 to −15)^†	10,518	25,094	139
		Positive (Mic)	6184	4896	−21	−66 (−83 to −30)^†	3152	3448	9
		Test positivity rate (mic)	22	17	−26	13 (−32 to 87)	30	14	−54
	30	Proportion of outpatients	37	19	−49	−50 (−60 to −38)^†	52	29	−44	−46 (−57 to −31)^†
		Proportion of inpatients	26	25	−2	−28 (−49 to 1)	51	41	−20	−44 (−53 to −31)^†
		Proportion of deaths	7	4	−46	−41 (−61 to −12)^†	14	8	−40	−40 (−70 to 20)
		Non-malaria outpatient	634,600	1037,746	64	−14 (−33 to 11)	93,083	173,324	86	−3 (−22 to 21)
		Non-malaria inpatients	56,415	91,878	63	15 (−26 to 79)	7704	18,677	142	76 (16 to 166)
		Non-malaria deaths	2795	2132	−24	−41 (−64 to −5)^†	613	335	−45	−66 (−80 to −42)^†
Savannah	28	Outpatient malaria cases	183,718	191,659	4	−59 (−73 to −39)^†	53,330	60,632	14	−51 (−70 to −20)^†
		Malaria admissions	22,460	42,412	89	−48 (−77 to 19)	10,517	17,825	69	−54 (−85 to 41)
		Malaria deaths	502	362	−28	−64 (−79 to −38)^†	276	147	−47	−70 (−86 to −39)^†
		Anaemia inpatients	3241	7642	136	−30 (−94 to 659)	1686	3086	83	−45 (−94 to 370)
		Anaemia deaths	110	226	106	59 (−41 to 329)	54	52	−4	−49 (−85 to 79)
	18	Tested (Mic)	21,471	40,977	91	−28 (−55 to 16)	24,823	33,395	35
		Positive (Mic)	8910	13,435	51	−55 (−77 to −9)^†	11,613	10,697	−8
		Test positivity rate (mic)	42	33	−21	−37 (−61 to 2)	47	32	−32
	28	Proportion of outpatients	46	33	−28	−15 (−34 to 9)	69	50	−27	−5 (−36 to 42)
		Proportion of inpatients	30	21	−30	−51 (−66 to −30)^†	61	28	−54	−55 (−71 to −29)^†
		Proportion of deaths	21	12	−41	−57 (−71 to −35)^†	40	20	−50	−59 (−71 to −41)^†
		Non-malaria outpatient	396,294	561,263	42	−52 (−67 to −28)^†	67,199	110,711	65	−52 (−76 to 0)^†
		Non-malaria inpatients	51,207	158,597	210	44 (−19 to 156)	6869	46,089	571	89 (−70 to 1095)
		Non-malaria deaths	1887	2586	37	2 (−26 to 40)	421	593	41	14 (−28 to 82)

Negative percentages indicate decrease in the indicator while positive percentages indicate increase during the post-scale up period (2011–2015) compared to the pre-scale-up period
CI with symbol “†” is statistically significant

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