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Table 1 Best-fitted seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) of malaria prevalence and meteorological parameters in four administrative areas in Swaziland

From: Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination

Variables

SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) s

AR (1)

AR (2)

MA (1)

SAR (1)

SAR (2)

SMA (1)

Hhohho

 Malaria

(2, 1, 1)

0.610

−0.210

−0.830

   

 MEI

(1, 1, 0)

0.331

     

 TMAX

(1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 0)12

0.205

  

0.717

  

 TMIN

(1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 2) 12

0.250

  

0.429

0.249

 

 PREC

(1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12

0.209

  

0.078

0.079

 

Lubombo

 Malaria

(1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12

0.514

 

−0.796

0.170

  

 MEI

(1, 1, 0)

0.331

     

 TMAX

(2, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0) 12

1.137

−0.360

−0.851

0.355

0.400

 

 TMIN

(0, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12

   

0.419

0.307

 

 PREC

(2, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0) 12

1.031

−0.270

−0.822

0.299

0.273

 

Manzini

 Malaria

(0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1) 12

  

−0.682

0.885

 

−0.705

 MEI

(1, 1, 0)

0.331

     

 TMAX

(1, 0, 0) (2, 1, 0) 12

0.150

  

−0.601

−0.286

 

 TMIN

(1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12

0.169

  

0.492

0.281

 

 PREC

(1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12

0.223

  

0.275

0.419

 

Shiselweni

 Malaria

(1, 1, 1)

0.342

 

−0.718

   

 MEI

(1, 1, 0)

0.331

     

 TMAX

(1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12

0.232

  

0.394

0.426

 

 TMIN

(0, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12

   

0.539

0.276

 

 PREC

(1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12

0.172

  

0.304

0.274

 
  1. AR autoregressive, MA moving average, SAR seasonal autoregressive, SMA seasonal moving average