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Table 1 Best-fitted seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) of malaria prevalence and meteorological parameters in four administrative areas in Swaziland

From: Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination

Variables SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q) s AR (1) AR (2) MA (1) SAR (1) SAR (2) SMA (1)
Hhohho
 Malaria (2, 1, 1) 0.610 −0.210 −0.830    
 MEI (1, 1, 0) 0.331      
 TMAX (1, 0, 0) (1, 0, 0)12 0.205    0.717   
 TMIN (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 2) 12 0.250    0.429 0.249  
 PREC (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12 0.209    0.078 0.079  
Lubombo
 Malaria (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 0.514   −0.796 0.170   
 MEI (1, 1, 0) 0.331      
 TMAX (2, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0) 12 1.137 −0.360 −0.851 0.355 0.400  
 TMIN (0, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12     0.419 0.307  
 PREC (2, 0, 1) (2, 0, 0) 12 1.031 −0.270 −0.822 0.299 0.273  
Manzini
 Malaria (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1) 12    −0.682 0.885   −0.705
 MEI (1, 1, 0) 0.331      
 TMAX (1, 0, 0) (2, 1, 0) 12 0.150    −0.601 −0.286  
 TMIN (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12 0.169    0.492 0.281  
 PREC (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12 0.223    0.275 0.419  
Shiselweni
 Malaria (1, 1, 1) 0.342   −0.718    
 MEI (1, 1, 0) 0.331      
 TMAX (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12 0.232    0.394 0.426  
 TMIN (0, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12     0.539 0.276  
 PREC (1, 0, 0) (2, 0, 0) 12 0.172    0.304 0.274  
  1. AR autoregressive, MA moving average, SAR seasonal autoregressive, SMA seasonal moving average