Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination

Malaria Journal

Table 2 Multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models of malaria incidence in four administrative areas in Swaziland

SARIMA model^a	Coefficients	SE	AIC	AIC difference
Hhohho
Malaria only			9.6	–
Malaria + MEI (lag = 2)	−0.067	0.049	11.67	2.07
Malaria + TMAX (lag = 0)	0.0137	0.0152	10.97	1.37
Malaria + TMIN (lag = 3)	0.0124	0.0089	12.58	2.98
Malaria + precipitation (lag = 3)	0.02	0.0066	5.43 ^b	−4.17
Lubombo
Malaria only			92.34	–
Malaria + MEI (lag = 1)	−0.2039	0.05	89.46	−2.88
Malaria + TMAX (lag = 3)	0.0449	0.0775	88.88	−3.46
Malaria + TMIN (lag = 1)	0.0135	0.0092	92.22	−0.12
Malaria + precipitation (lag = 2)	0.0224	0.0007	86.59 ^b	−5.75
Manzini
Malaria only			−474.99 ^b	–
Malaria + MEI (lag = 3)	0.0054	0.0085	−471.65	3.34
Malaria + TMAX (lag = 3)	0.7475	0.3119	−471.83	3.16
Malaria + TMIN (lag = 2)	0.0004	0.0024	−471.27	3.72
Malaria + precipitation (lag = 1)	0.0054	0.0025	−471.12	3.87
Shiselweni
Malaria only			−396.8 ^b	–
Malaria + MEI (lag = 7)	0.0156	0.0139	−375.52	21.28
Malaria + TMAX (lag = 4)	0.009	0.004	−389.54	7.26
Malaria + TMIN (lag = 2)	0.0039	0.0023	−393.72	3.08
Malaria + precipitation (lag = 3)	0.006	0.0032	−390.88	5.92

ISSN: 1475-2875