Fig. 4
Success of elimination programmes in Bbondo HFCA is dominated by effects of reducing importation and improving case management. a Transmission in Bbondo HFCA was monitored under 1000 realizations of each intervention scenario from 2014 through 2020. Simulations with zero locally-acquired infections in 2020 were considered to have achieved elimination. b Five potential intervention packages were modelled in the external high-transmission area to which Bbondo residents may travel. See “Methods” for details on these intervention packages. c Probability of elimination in Bbondo under three potential case management rates and five potential intervention packages implemented in the external high-transmission area. d Probability of elimination in Bbondo under various case management rates and potential RCD implementations. Perfect RCD indicates 100% of index cases receiving follow-up and 100% of residents at home and receptive to follow-up activities. Scenarios were simulated under three importation rates, corresponding to intervention package #5 in the external high-transmission area (no importations), package #4 (low importation), and package #2 (high importation)