Table 3 Estimated parameters of the statistical model. Parameters are presented as median and 95% credible intervals of the estimated posterior distribution
Parameter | Description | Data analysed | |
|---|---|---|---|
Proportions | Total cases | ||
Pf 0 | Mean proportion/number of P. falciparum cases per month | 9.4% (8.4, 10.4%) | 27 (21, 33) |
c | Ratio of cases in dry season to wet season | 0.69 (0.55, 0.84) | 0.56 (0.28, 0.79) |
κ | Seasonal shape parameter | 2.3 (1.5, 4.3) | 3.0 (1.7, 7.0) |
θ | Offset for seasonal peak (0 = May 2015) | 4.9 (4.4, 5.4) | 5.1 (4.6, 5,5) |
α | Primary P. vivax cases relative to P. falciparum cases | 1.17 (0.77, 1.49) | 1.91 (1.19, 2.65) |
β | Relapses P. vivax cases relative to P. falciparum cases | 1.72 (1.35, 2.12) | 0.71 (0.13, 1.39) |
δ | Lag of relapse cases compared to primary cases | 5.9 (5.2, 6.5) | 4.8 (0.8, 10.8) |
σ | Standard deviation of case numbers | – | 10.3 (7.4, 16.3) |