Fig. 1

Model schematic. Compartments: susceptible, uninfected; exposed, infected with disease in the latent stage, approximating liver-stage infection; infected, infected with clinical symptoms approximating presence of circulating gametocytes and infectious to mosquitoes; recovered and immune, approximating clinically immune individuals who still have circulating gametocytes and are infectious to mosquitoes. The model is stratified by population group (children, defined as 0–5 years; pregnant women; and the rest of the population) and by the six geopolitical regions in Nigeria