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Table 1 Time series model selection

From: Climatic fluctuations and malaria transmission dynamics, prior to elimination, in Guna Yala, República de Panamá

Parameters (lag)

AIC

Intercept, AR(1), AR(2), SAR(4)

1571.27

Intercept, AR(1), AR(2), SAR(4), Niño 4(15), rain(7), NDVI(8)

1559.89

Intercept, AR(1), AR(2), SAR(4), Niño 4(15), rain(7),

1568.70

Intercept, AR(1), AR(2), SAR(4), Niño 4(15), NDVI(8)

1562.46

Intercept, AR(1), AR(2), SAR(4), rain(7), NDVI(8)

1562.75

Intercept, AR(1), AR(2), SAR(4), Niño 4(15)

1568.41

Intercept, AR(1), AR(2), SAR(4), rain(7)

1569.72

Intercept, AR(1), AR(2), SAR(4), NDVI(8)

1568.04

  1. Parameters indicate the parameters considered in each model
  2. AIC Akaike information criterion is minimized for the best model, indicated in italic type. Parameters include: AR autoregressive, SAR seasonal AR, Niño 4, rain and NDVI, lags are in months
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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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