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Table 2 Parameter estimates for the best time series model explaining the number of malaria cases in Comarca Guna Yala (2000–2016), Panamá

From: Climatic fluctuations and malaria transmission dynamics, prior to elimination, in Guna Yala, República de Panamá

Parameter (Lag)

Estimate

SE

Z

Intercept

37.896

7.854

4.825*

AR(1)

0.532

0.072

7.389*

AR(2)

0.16

0.074

2.162*

SAR(4)

0.263

0.088

2.989*

Niño 4(15)

− 5.61

2.503

− 2.241*

Rain(7)

0.508

0.237

2.143*

NDVI(8)

− 30.946

9.367

− 3.304*

Error variance

153.5

  
  1. Parameters include: AR autoregressive, SAR seasonal AR, Niño 4, rain and NDVI, lags are in months
  2. * Statistically significant, P < 0.05
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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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