Table 3 Predictive performance of the baseline-adapted nomogram and the day-3 positivity test

Negative results (N)

The nomogram predicts the individual parasite density ratio (Ratio _i ) to be above the “Cut-off”

Non-resistant if observed parasitaemia is below LLOQ at day 3

Positive results (P)

The nomogram predicts the individual parasite density ratio (Ratio _i ) to be below the “Cut-off”

Resistant if observed parasitaemia is above LLOQ at day 3

True positive (TP)

The approach predicts correctly the patient to have a resistant infection

True negative (TN)

The approach predicts correctly the patient to have a sensitive infection

Sensitivity \(\frac{TP}{TP + FN}\)

Probability of predicting correctly patients with resistant infections

90%

55%

Specificity \(\frac{TN}{TP + FP}\)

Probability of predicting correctly patients with sensitive infections

95%

95%

Accuracy \(\frac{TP + TN}{TP + TN + FP + FN}\)

Proportion of all correct predictions

93%

75%