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Table 2 Effects of interventions on malaria incidence estimated from Bayesian spatio-temporal models adjusted for socio-economic and climatic factors

From: The effect of case management and vector-control interventions on space–time patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda

Predictor Children less than 5 years (n = 16,638,104) Individuals 5 years and above (n = 41,345,996)
IRR (95% BCI) IRR (95% BCI)
Interventionsb
 ITN 0.56 (0.41, 0.72)a 1.08 (1.00, 1.17)
 ACT 0.72 (0.55, 0.89)a 0.75 (0.72, 0.80)a
Wealth indexc
 Poorest (11,374,365) 1 1
 Poorer (10,602,075) 0.87 (0.77, 0.98)a 0.88 (0.83, 1.93)
 Middle (8,076,579) 0.77 (0.70, 0.84)a 0.80 (0.77, 0.84)a
 Richer (12,828,925) 0.75 (0.71, 0.81)a 0.81 (0.73, 0.86)a
 Richest (15,102,156) 0.79 (0.66, 0.97)a 0.84 (0.76, 0.95)
Proportion health seeking behavior 1.09 (1.07, 1.11)a 1.07 (1.04, 1.09)a
Rainfall (mm)
  ≤ 76.9 1 1
 77.0–125.7 1.02 (0.99, 1.05) 1.02 (0.95, 1.11)a
 125.8–348.8 1.04 (1.01, 1.09)a 1.05 (1.01, 1.12)a
NDVI
  ≤ 0.6 1 1
 0.61–0.70 1.13 (1.09, 1.16)a 1.17 (1.14, 1.25)a
 0.71–6.54 1.15 (1.12, 1.20)a 1.21 (1.17, 1.27)a
LSTD (°C)
  < 27.5 1 1
 27.6–29.4 1.05 (1.02, 1.16)a 1.06 (1.02, 1.12)a
 29.5–36.5 0.86 (0.80, 0.92)a 0.85 (0.82, 0.88)
LSTN (°C)
  < 18.0 1 1
 18.1–18.5 0.99 (0.95, 1.02)a 0.97 (0.95, 1.05)
 18.6–22.0 0.90 (0.86, 0.94)a 0.91 (0.89, 0.96)a
Altitude 0.80 (0.73, 0.88)a 0.92 (0.89, 0.94)a
% of district covered by crops 0.98 (0.91, 1.04) 1.00 (0.97, 1.02)
% of district covered by water 1.00 (0.95, 1.09) 1.00 (0.96, 1.04)
  Median (95% BCI) Median (95% BCI)
Temporal trend   
 2013 1 1
 2014 0.002 (− 0.03, 0.02) − 0.16 (− 0.19, − 0.14)
 2015 − 0.13 (− 0.15, − 0.09) − 0.06 (− 0.12, − 0.02)
 2016 0.23 (0.19, 0.23) − 0.12 (− 0.16, − 0.10)
 Amplitude
  Annual 0.33 (0.15, 0.50) 0.28 (0.16, 0.78)
  Semi-annual 0.11 (0.07, 0.20) 0.15 (0.09, 0.41)
  Phase (months)
  Annual 2.66 (1.51, 5.68) 2.19 (1.40, 5.63)
  Semi-annual 2.09 (1.16, 5.51) 1.56 (0.87, 4.99)
 Spatial variance
  2013 1.20 (0.90, 1.57) 1.21 (0.91, 1.58)
  2014 1.05 (0.79, 1.37) 1.00 (0.76, 1.30)
  2015 1.52 (1.14, 1.99) 1.34 (1.01, 1.75)
  2016 1.16 (0.87, 1.51) 1.04 (0.78, 1.36)
 Temporal variance 16.89 (10.82, 25.05) 17.20 (11.06, 25.37)
 Temporal correlation 0.94 (0.83, 0.99) 0.63 (0.10, 0.93)
 Dispersion 14.03 (13.47, 14.60) 16.12 (15.49, 16.77)
  1. aStatistically important effect
  2. bCoverage was modeled on the scale of 0 to 1—therefore one unit increase in coverage corresponds to a 100% increase which implies a shift of the current by 100%
  3. cRelative frequency distribution (a) < 5 years; poorest (22%), poorer (20%), Middle (13.4%), Richer (19%), Richest (25.6%) (b) ≤ 5 years; poorest (18.7%), poorer (17.6%), Middle (14.1%), Richer (23.4%), Richest (26.2%)