Table 2 Effects of interventions on malaria incidence estimated from Bayesian spatio-temporal models adjusted for socio-economic and climatic factors

Interventions^b

 ITN

0.56 (0.41, 0.72)^a

1.08 (1.00, 1.17)

 ACT

0.72 (0.55, 0.89)^a

0.75 (0.72, 0.80)^a

Wealth index^c

 Poorest (11,374,365)

1

1

 Poorer (10,602,075)

0.87 (0.77, 0.98)^a

0.88 (0.83, 1.93)

 Middle (8,076,579)

0.77 (0.70, 0.84)^a

0.80 (0.77, 0.84)^a

 Richer (12,828,925)

0.75 (0.71, 0.81)^a

0.81 (0.73, 0.86)^a

 Richest (15,102,156)

0.79 (0.66, 0.97)^a

0.84 (0.76, 0.95)

Proportion health seeking behavior

1.09 (1.07, 1.11)^a

1.07 (1.04, 1.09)^a

Rainfall (mm)

  ≤ 76.9

1

1

 77.0–125.7

1.02 (0.99, 1.05)

1.02 (0.95, 1.11)^a

 125.8–348.8

1.04 (1.01, 1.09)^a

1.05 (1.01, 1.12)^a

NDVI

  ≤ 0.6

1

1

 0.61–0.70

1.13 (1.09, 1.16)^a

1.17 (1.14, 1.25)^a

 0.71–6.54

1.15 (1.12, 1.20)^a

1.21 (1.17, 1.27)^a

LSTD (°C)

  < 27.5

1

1

 27.6–29.4

1.05 (1.02, 1.16)^a

1.06 (1.02, 1.12)^a

 29.5–36.5

0.86 (0.80, 0.92)^a

0.85 (0.82, 0.88)

LSTN (°C)

  < 18.0

1

1

 18.1–18.5

0.99 (0.95, 1.02)^a

0.97 (0.95, 1.05)

 18.6–22.0

0.90 (0.86, 0.94)^a

0.91 (0.89, 0.96)^a

Altitude

0.80 (0.73, 0.88)^a

0.92 (0.89, 0.94)^a

% of district covered by crops

0.98 (0.91, 1.04)

1.00 (0.97, 1.02)

% of district covered by water

1.00 (0.95, 1.09)

1.00 (0.96, 1.04)

Temporal trend

 2013

1

1

 2014

0.002 (− 0.03, 0.02)

− 0.16 (− 0.19, − 0.14)

 2015

− 0.13 (− 0.15, − 0.09)

− 0.06 (− 0.12, − 0.02)

 2016

0.23 (0.19, 0.23)

− 0.12 (− 0.16, − 0.10)

 Amplitude

  Annual

0.33 (0.15, 0.50)

0.28 (0.16, 0.78)

  Semi-annual

0.11 (0.07, 0.20)

0.15 (0.09, 0.41)

  Phase (months)

  Annual

2.66 (1.51, 5.68)

2.19 (1.40, 5.63)

  Semi-annual

2.09 (1.16, 5.51)

1.56 (0.87, 4.99)

 Spatial variance

  2013

1.20 (0.90, 1.57)

1.21 (0.91, 1.58)

  2014

1.05 (0.79, 1.37)

1.00 (0.76, 1.30)

  2015

1.52 (1.14, 1.99)

1.34 (1.01, 1.75)

  2016

1.16 (0.87, 1.51)

1.04 (0.78, 1.36)

 Temporal variance

16.89 (10.82, 25.05)

17.20 (11.06, 25.37)

 Temporal correlation

0.94 (0.83, 0.99)

0.63 (0.10, 0.93)

 Dispersion

14.03 (13.47, 14.60)

16.12 (15.49, 16.77)