Fig. 2

Time to confirmed partial artemisinin resistance (as measured by the time from mutant strain introduction until ≥ 5% of individuals carry parasites with K13 mutations and a slow clearing phenotype) in different P. falciparum prevalence settings, defined by the prevalence of wild-type P. falciparum infections in the human population in the year ACT was introduced. Using mean parameter estimates, the model predicts a longer time to detect drug resistant strains in areas with higher prevalence (solid black line). The results of the Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis are consistent with this finding (each dot represents a simulation using randomly drawn parameters). Calibration data points and their uncertainties (95% CIs) for Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam were obtained from the literature (MAP [29], WHO [34])