Fig. 3
The national annual mean (black line), 2.5–97.5% (light green boundaries) interquartile credibility range (ICR) and 25–75% ICR (dark green boundaries) of the posterior PfPR2–10 predictions in Kenya from 1990 to 2015. Unsuitable areas for malaria transmission and those with very low population were excluded in the computation of mean PfPR2–10 and ICR. Major malaria timelines are shown in bottom panel. Blue boxes represent changing first line anti-malarial treatment and diagnostic policies using malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDT). Green boxes represent changing approaches to the delivery of insecticide-treated nets (ITN) through to the provision of free-of-charge of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLIN) during mass campaigns in 2006, 2008, 2011/12, 2014 and 2015 alongside sustained routine delivery to infants and pregnant mothers at clinics. Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), ( yellow boxes), has been targeted to different counties since 2006 starting in focal areas of 12 counties, by 2010/11 expanding to 16 epidemic prone and 4 endemic counties, and stopped in 2013. Peach colored boxes represent periods of drought while red represents excessive El Niño rainfall, all classified as national disasters