Table 1 SAFARI model inputs
| Â | Model inputs | Input | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Demographic and epidemiological data | < 5 Population at risk | 7,881,620 |  | [25] |
Malaria incidence (annual rate for < 5 population at risk) | 0.447 | (0.197–0.744) | [26] | |
Asymptomatic malaria case rate per 1000 population | 0.156 | (0.08–0.23) | [59] | |
Probability that an untreated case progresses to a severe case | 0.130 | (0.07–0.3) | [60] | |
Probability that a treatment failure progresses to a severe case | 0.020 | (0.005–0.05) | ||
Case fatality rate for a severe case receiving quinine | 0.109 | (0.06–0.22) | [62] | |
Case fatality rate for a severe case receiving other treatments | 0.109 | (0.06–0.22) | Assumption | |
Case fatality rate for a severe case receiving ACTs | 0.085 | (0.06–0.22) | [62] | |
Probability that a severe case progresses to NS | 0.032 | (0.028–0.035) | [62] | |
Healthcare-seeking behaviour | Care-seeking behaviour (%) | |||
  Public facilities | 34.7% |  | [27] | |
  Private facilities | 40.8% |  | ||
  Pharmacies | 1.0% |  | ||
  Drug stores | 5.6% |  | ||
  CHWs | 0.7% |  | ||
  Self/neighbours | 12.7% |  | ||
  No treatment | 4.4% |  | ||
Medication stock by facility | Public facilities | |||
  % Stock ACTs | 89.5% |  | [27] | |
  % Stock quinine | 9.2% |  | ||
  % Stock other treatmentsa | 1.3% |  | ||
Private facilities | ||||
  % Stock ACTs | 77.2% |  | ||
  % Stock quinine | 14.3% |  | ||
  % Stock other treatments | 8.6% |  | ||
Pharmacies | ||||
  % Stock ACTs | 76.0% |  | ||
  % Stock quinine | 0.0% |  | ||
  % Stock other treatments | 24.0% |  | ||
Drug stores | ||||
  % Stock ACTs | 80.9% |  | ||
  % Stock quinine | 19.1% |  | ||
  % Stock other treatments | 0.0% |  | ||
CHW2 | ||||
  % Stock ACTs | 78.9% |  | ||
  % Stock quinine | 0.0% |  | ||
  % Stock other treatments | 21.1% |  | ||
Self/neighbours | ||||
  % Stock ACTs | 87.2% |  | ||
  % Stock quinine | 9.7% |  | ||
  % Stock other treatments | 3.1% |  | ||
Probability facility has anti-malarial in stock | Public facilities | 96.1% | Â | [33] |
Private facilities | 88.6% | Â | ||
Pharmacies | 99.7% | Â | ||
Drug stores | 86.1% | Â | ||
CHWs | 99.7% | Â | ||
Self/neighbours (for ACTs) | 100.0% | Â | ||
Medication effectiveness | ACTs cure rate | 0.9755 | (0.9615–0.9895) | |
Quinine cure rate | 0.8818 | (0.8484–0.9152) | ||
Other treatments cure rate | 0.7167 | (0.6581–0.7753) | ||
No treatment cure rate | 0 | Â | Assumption based on [32] | |
Proportions of SF medications | ACTs | Â | Coefficient | Â |
  Not SF (API > 85%) | 80.5% | 1 | ||
  Category 1: API = 75–85% | 10.5% | 0.75 | ||
  Category 2: API = 50–75% | 4.5% | 0.5 | ||
  Category 3: API < 50% | 4.5% | 0 | ||
Quinine | ||||
  Not SF (API > 85%) | 77.9% | 1 | ||
  Category 1: API = 75–85% | 11.9% | 0.75 | ||
  Category 2: API = 50–75% | 5.1% | 0.5 | ||
  Category 3: API < 50% | 5.1% | 0 | ||
Other treatments | ||||
  Not SF (API > 85%) | 68.7% | 1 | ||
  Category 1: API = 75–85% | 16.9% | 0.75 | ||
  Category 2: API = 50–75% | 7.3% | 0.5 | ||
  Category 3: API < 50% | 7.2% | 0 | ||
Treatment adherence | Number of doses taken | Â | Coefficient | Â |
  0–1 | 3.9% | 0 | [34] | |
  2 | 3.1% | 0.25 | ||
  3 | 7.3% | 0.5 | ||
  4 | 10.9% | 0.75 | ||
  5–6 | 74.7% | 1 | ||
Care-seeking behaviour | Number of days after onset of fever care was sought | Â | Coefficient | [27] |
  Same day | 18.7% | 0 | ||
  1 | 32.0% | 0.2 | ||
  2 | 25.3% | 0.4 | ||
  3+ | 24.0% | 0.6 | ||
| Â | Cost inputsb | Input | Range | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Patient out-of-pocket costs | Public facilities | Â | Â | Â |
  Average cost of ACTs | $ 0.00 |  | Assumption based on [27] | |
  Average cost of quinine | $ 0.00 |  | ||
  Average cost of other treatments | $ 0.00 |  | ||
Private facilities | ||||
  Average cost of ACTs | $ 2.59 | (1.48–3.99) | [33] | |
  Average cost of quinine | $ 3.39 | (2.75–4.08) | ||
  Average cost of other treatments | $ 0.65 | (0.49–0.82) | ||
Pharmacies | ||||
  Average cost of ACTs | $ 2.91 | (1.55–4.69) | ||
  Average cost of quinine | $ 2.72 | (2.10–3.42) | ||
  Average cost of other treatments | $ 0.48 | (0.32–0.66) | ||
Drug stores | ||||
  Average Cost of ACTs | $ 1.62 | (1.05–2.31) | ||
  Average cost of quinine | $ 3.39 | (2.76–4.08) | ||
  Average cost of other treatments | $ 0.48 | (0.33–0.66) | ||
CHWs | ||||
  Average cost of ACTs | $ 0.00 |  | Assumption based on [27] | |
  Average cost of quinine | $ 0.00 |  | ||
  Average cost of other treatments | $ 0.00 |  | ||
Self/neighbours | ||||
  Average cost of ACTs | $ 0.00 |  | Assumption | |
  Average cost of quinine | $ 0.00 |  | Assumption | |
  Average cost of other treatments | $ 0.00 |  | Assumption | |
Transport (pub, private) | $ 0.47 | (0.39–0.55) | [64] | |
Transport (pharmacy, drugstore) | $ 0.08 | (0.04–0.12) | [65] | |
Special foods for child | $ 1.15 | (0.87–1.43) | [66] | |
Supplemental medicines | $ 1.14 | (1.02–1.26) | [64] | |
Average testing costs | $ 0.91 | (0.65–1.17) | [33] | |
Private facility consultation costs | $ 4.35 | (0–21.00) | [67] | |
Cost per paediatric malaria hospitalization | $ 14.17 | (0.75–47.50) | [67] | |
Productivity losses | Productivity loss per sick day | $ 1.59 | (0.4–3.70) | [70]c |
Productivity losses from death | $ 14,959.66 | Â | [70]d | |
NS disability productivity losses | $ 6189.87 | Â | ||
Facility costs | Facility cost per testing | $ 1.46 | (1.34–1.58) | |
Facility cost per ACTs | $ 1.50 | (1.35–1.65) | [64] | |
Facility cost for quinine | $ 2.48 | (1.75–3.32) | [68] | |
Facility cost per other treatments | $ 0.12 | (0.03–0.26) | [68] | |
Public facility cost per consultation | $ 8.58 | (7.75–10.00) | [64] | |
Facility cost per paediatric malaria hospitalization | $ 65.89 | (59.55–72.45) | [69] | |
Cost per CHW treatment | $ 1.17 | (0.74–1.60) | [66] | |
Cost per CHW testing | $ 1.09 | (0.95–1.23) | [66] | |
Facility cost per CHW visit | $ 4.63 | (2.95–6.7) | [66] | |