Fig. 3

Descriptive statistics of the spatial characteristics of treatment seeking rates by mothers for febrile infants under 5 years old in the 2 weeks preceding the interview (indicator ML_FEVT_C_ADV). a–c Represent the 2013 MIS data, and d–f are for 2016. The maps in a, d illustrate the cluster-level raw treatment-seeking rates, while b, e are variograms (a tight spatial structure would show an increasing lag—or dissimilarity between points—with increasing spatial distance). c, f Plot the model validation of observed cluster-level raw values (y-axis) against predicted values in those locations. In the model validation, a random 25% of the dataset is withheld and the model run with the remaining 75%; this process is repeated four times without replacement, thus giving validation-predictions for all cluster locations (c, f). Tight scatterplot correlation suggests greater precision in the model’s predictive performance