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Table 1 Modelling analysis of the trend in clinical malaria incidence and climatic effect

From: Ten years malaria trend at Arjo-Didessa sugar development site and its vicinity, Southwest Ethiopia: a retrospective study

Parasite species Term Estimate t-value Prob > |t|
Total cases Total cases from last month 0.543 7.42 < 0.0001
Precipitation (2-month lagged) 0.196 3.58 0.0005
Time (month since Jan 2008) − 0.478 − 1.90 0.0599
(Time-61.5)*(Time-61.5) − 0.025 − 2.80 0.0060
P. falciparum P. falciparum cases from last month 0.530 6.73 < 0.0001
Mixed cases 2 months ago − 0.683 − 2.01 0.0470
Precipitation (2-month lagged) 0.132 3.25 0.0015
Minimum temperature (1-month lagged) 14.461 2.53 0.0128
Time (month since Jan 2008) − 0.494 − 2.54 0.0124
(Time-61.5)*(Time-61.5) − 0.016 − 2.43 0.0169
P. vivax P. vivax cases from last month 0.836 9.50 < 0.0001
Mixed cases from last month − 0.855 − 2.95 0.0038
Precipitation (2-month lagged) 0.101 3.98 0.0001
Time (month since Jan 2008) − 0.248 − 2.15 0.0335
(Time-61.5)*(Time-61.5) − 0.009 − 2.40 0.0182