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Table 1 Modelling analysis of the trend in clinical malaria incidence and climatic effect

From: Ten years malaria trend at Arjo-Didessa sugar development site and its vicinity, Southwest Ethiopia: a retrospective study

Parasite species

Term

Estimate

t-value

Prob > |t|

Total cases

Total cases from last month

0.543

7.42

< 0.0001

Precipitation (2-month lagged)

0.196

3.58

0.0005

Time (month since Jan 2008)

− 0.478

− 1.90

0.0599

(Time-61.5)*(Time-61.5)

− 0.025

− 2.80

0.0060

P. falciparum

P. falciparum cases from last month

0.530

6.73

< 0.0001

Mixed cases 2 months ago

− 0.683

− 2.01

0.0470

Precipitation (2-month lagged)

0.132

3.25

0.0015

Minimum temperature (1-month lagged)

14.461

2.53

0.0128

Time (month since Jan 2008)

− 0.494

− 2.54

0.0124

(Time-61.5)*(Time-61.5)

− 0.016

− 2.43

0.0169

P. vivax

P. vivax cases from last month

0.836

9.50

< 0.0001

Mixed cases from last month

− 0.855

− 2.95

0.0038

Precipitation (2-month lagged)

0.101

3.98

0.0001

Time (month since Jan 2008)

− 0.248

− 2.15

0.0335

(Time-61.5)*(Time-61.5)

− 0.009

− 2.40

0.0182