Table 3 Factors associated with monthly indigenous malaria incidence at the VDC level, January 2013–December 2016, in Kailali, Kanchanpur and Bardiya districts
| Â | Posterior mean, (95% Crl) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
All species | P. vivax | P. falciparum | |
Fixed effects (IRR) | |||
 Lagged importation ratea | 1.02 (1.009, 1.031) | 1.025 (1.013, 1.037) | 1.011 (0.962, 1.057) |
 LST (°C) | 1.016 (0.978, 1.049) | 1.007 (0.962, 1.05) | 0.924 (0.811, 1.074) |
 Rainfall (mm) | |||
  < 20 | 1 |  |  |
  20–119 | 1.117 (0.757, 1.618) | 1.064 (0.684, 1.626) | 0.124 (0.014, 1.633) |
  120–1450 | 1.334 (0.8, 2.065) | 1.145 (0.642, 1.943) | 0.198 (0.022, 2.642) |
 High population densityb | 0.614 (0.399, 0.947) | 0.616 (0.398, 0.96) | 0.579 (0.293, 1.233) |
 Year | |||
  2013 | 1 |  |  |
  2014 | 0.635 (0.48, 0.838) | 0.921 (0.674, 1.256) | 0.072 (0.03, 0.156) |
  2015 | 0.442 (0.305, 0.64) | 0.609 (0.408, 0.91) | 0.07 (0.024, 0.174) |
  2016 | 0.636 (0.436, 0.924) | 0.858 (0.568, 1.289) | 0.09 (0.028, 0.241) |
 District | |||
  Kailali |  |  |  |
  Kanchanpur | 0.475 (0.308, 0.736) | 0.603 (0.389, 0.94) | 0.024 (0.006, 0.078) |
  Bardiya | 0.768 (0.486, 1.205) | 1.035 (0.65, 1.634) | 0 (0, 887.532) |
Random effects (precision) | |||
 Seasonal random effect | 2.949 (0.052, 17.118) | 1.017 (0.016, 6.351) | 0.009 (0, 0.049) |
 VDC effect unstructured | 2.25 (1.464, 3.329) | 1.972 (1.295, 2.905) | 3.527 (0.887, 10.115) |
 VDC effect structured | 3013.549 (745.865, 7326.227) | 2931.545 (708.639, 7408.301) | 3415.982 (835.229, 9202.779) |