Coefficient

Value


β
_{
final}

0.477

λ

5.354

α

0.827

σ

0.215

β
_{
Initial}

0.432

 β_{final} represents the value of the scaling parameter, β, after the second modelfitting (to the literature review data) and β_{Initial} represents the value of β after the first model fitting (to the DHS Program data), which is not used in the final model fit. The parameter λ controls the rate of decline of the proportion of MAF within malariapositive fevers with increasing PfPR_{0–5}. The parameter α controls the minimum proportion of malariapositive fevers in a population that can be due to malaria. The parameter σ is the standard deviation/observational noise parameter. Full details of model fitting and parameter optimisation can be found in the Additional file 6