Fig. 3

The overestimation of derived failure by 1 minus Kaplan–Meier method compared to the Cumulative Incidence Function. The overestimation \(\left( {\hat{F}_{KM} \left( t \right) - \hat{F}_{CIF} \left( t \right)} \right)\) of cumulative recrudescence (top panel) and new infection (bottom panel) by using the Kaplan–Meier method plotted against observed proportion of recrudescence and proportion of new infections respectively. Estimates presented are at the end of the study follow-up. The grey trend line is a smoothed estimator obtained from local polynomial regression fitting, shown together with 95% confidence interval (outer dotted lines) for the overall data. AL artemether–lumefantrine, ASAQ artesunate–amodiaquine, DP dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine, ASMQ artesunate–mefloquine. Data are shown from the study arms where at least one recrudescence and at least one competing risk event were observed and from those arms where the number of patients at risk > 25 on the last day of the study follow-up