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Table 4 Study sites where cumulative failure estimates exceeded 10% and 5% using K–M approach

From: Competing risk events in antimalarial drug trials in uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria: a WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network individual participant data meta-analysis

Study (site)

N

Number of events (RC/NI/IND)

Day

Drug

\(\hat{F}_{KM} \left( t \right)\) estimate of recrudescence [95% confidence interval]

\(\hat{F}_{CIF} \left( t \right)\) estimate of recrudescence [95% confidence interval]

10% thresholda

 Nikiema-2010 (Burkina Faso, Gourcy)b

144

12/28/3

28

AL

10.3 [4.8–15.8]

9.4 [4.3–14.5]

 The 4ABC Trial (Burkina Faso, Nanoro) [18]

294

24/142/9

28

AL

11.1 [6.8–15.4]

8.6 [5.3–11.8]

 Sirima-2015 (Burkina Faso, Balonghin) [21]

66

31/5/0

63

ASMQ

11.5 [7.2–15.9]

8.1 [1.2–14.9]

5% thresholda

 Yeka-2008 (Uganda, Kanungu) [45]

199

9/49/6

42

AL

5.2 [1.9–8.5]

4.6 [1.7–7.6]

 Sirima-2015 (Tanzania, Korogwe) [21]

27

1/3/2

63

AL

5.0 [0.0–14.6]

4.3 [0.0–12.9]

 Schramm-2013 (Liberia, Nimba) [46]

145

7/45/6

42

AL

5.6 [1.5–9.7]

5.0 [1.4–8.6]

 Agrawal-2013 (Kenya, Siaya) [47]

136

5/48/12

42

AL

5.2 [0.5–10.0]

4.2 [0.6–7.8]

 Karunajeewa-2008 (PNG, Madang) [48]

54

2/20/0

42

AL

5.9 [0.0–14.3]

4.7 [0.0–11.3]

 Sirima-2015 (Kenya, Kisumu) [21]

99

4/23/9

63

ASMQ

6.1 [0.1–12.0]

4.8 [0.2–9.4]

 Sirima-2015 (Burkina Faso, Balonghin) [21]

128

5/58/1

63

AL

5.4 [0.7–10.2]

4.0 [0.6–7.5]

 Bukirwa-2006 (Uganda, Tororo) [49]

204

10/89/2

28

AL

6.6 [2.6–10.7]

4.9 [2.0–8.0]

 Sirima-2015 (Kenya, Ahero) [21]

73

3/28/10

63

ASMQ

7.8 [0.0–16.7]

4.7[0.0–10.0]

  1. N study sample size, RC recrudescence, NI new infection, IND indeterminate outcomes, \(\hat{F}_{KM} \left( t \right)\) cumulative failure estimates derived using 1 minus Kaplan–Meier method, \(\hat{F}_{CIF} \left( t \right)\) cumulative failure estimates derived using Cumulative Incidence Function, AL artemether–lumefantrine, ASMQ artesunate–mefloquine
  2. a The 10% threshold is used by the WHO for determining whether the current regimen should be continued to be used as a first line therapy and 5% threshold is used for introducing a new regimen as a first line treatment [50]
  3. b Unpublished study