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Table 2 Posterior estimates showing effects of prevalence (PP and confirmed malaria) on all-cause mortality

From: Modelling the relationship between malaria prevalence as a measure of transmission and mortality across age groups

Covariate

Neonates

Infants

1–4 years

5–14 years

15–59 years

60+

Overallb

RR (95% BCIa)

RR (95% BCI)

RR (95% BCI)

RR (95% BCI)

RR (95% BCI)

RR (95% BCI)

RR (95% BCI)

PPc

0.64 (0.29–1.34)

1.32 (0.86–2.04)

1.50 (0.98–2.23)

1.38 (0.69–2.69)

1.23 (0.94–1.57)

1.04 (0.78–1.35)

1.15 (0.96–1.37)

Clinical malariac

1.05 (0.30–3.51)

1.65 (0.81–3.26)

1.89 (1.00–3.51)

3.94 (1.34–11.1)

0.99 (0.64–1.54)

1.07 (0.69–1.66)

1.32 (1.01–1.74)

Net use

1.18 (0.70–2.03)

1.06 (0.80–1.44)

0.82 (0.63–1.08)

0.97 (0.60–1.59)

0.88 (0.73–1.06)

0.78 (0.64–0.94)

0.91 (0.81–1.02)

Distance to health facility

 0–1 km

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

 1–2 km

1.05 (0.81–1.37)

1.04 (0.90–1.20)

1.06 (0.93–1.22)

1.01 (0.80–1.28)

1.08 (0.99–1.18)

0.03 (0.94–1.13)

1.07 (1.01–1.14)

 > 2 km

1.33 (1.01–1.76)

1.06 (0.91–1.24)

1.16 (1.00–1.34)

1.28 (0.99–1.65)

1.09 (0.99–1.20)

1.07 (0.97–1.18)

1.12 (1.05–1.20)

SES

 Poorest

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

 Poor

1.01 (0.78–1.29)

0.93 (0.80–1.07)

0.94 (0.82–1.07)

0.86 (0.68–1.08)

0.91 (0.83–0.99)

0.97 (0.88–1.06)

0.95 (0.90–1.01)

 Least poor

0.83 (0.63–1.07)

0.85 (0.74–0.98)

0.84 (0.73–0.96)

0.91 (0.73–1.13)

0.88 (0.81–0.97)

0.95 (0.87–1.04)

0.89 (0.83–0.95)

Period

 2007–2010

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

 2011–2015

1.05 (0.85–1.30)

0.57 (0.51–0.64)

0.60 (0.54–0.68)

0.77 (0.64–0.93)

0.68 (0.63–0.73)

0.96 (0.89–1.04)

0.71 (0.68–0.75)

Elevation

 1147–1243

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

 1244–1293

1.13 (0.80–1.59)

1.09 (0.88–1.34)

1.15 (0.94–1.42)

0.81 (0.59–1.01)

1.03 (0.89–1.18)

0.98 (0.86–1.10)

1.01 (0.89–1.12)

 1294–1327

0.84 (0.57–1.23)

0.80 (0.62–1.03)

0.97 (0.78–1.24)

0.98 (0.71–1.36)

0.99 (0.85–1.15)

0.92 (0.80–1.05)

0.87 (0.76–0.99)

 1328–1365

1.17 (0.79–1.73)

0.82 (0.63–1.07)

0.99 (0.78–1.27)

0.96 (0.67–1.39)

0.93 (0.78–1.10)

0.96 (0.83–1.11)

0.89 (0.75–1.01)

 > 1365

0.92 (0.59–1.44)

0.61 (0.45–0.81)

0.80 (0.62–1.06)

1.09 (0.74–1.63)

0.92 (0.75–1.12)

0.98 (0.84–1.15)

0.80 (0.68–0.93)

Spatial variance

0.49 (0.17–2.74)

0.86 (0.25–4.11)

0.77 (0.23–4.03)

0.51 (0.18–2.02)

0.57 (0.14–2.27)

0.34 (0.15–0.97)

0.96 (0.32–3.69)

Ranged

24.07 (8.41–90.88)

15.25 (8.22–83.71)

17.38 (8.27–81.66)

23.59 (8.43–88.54)

19.77 (8.34–93.87)

50.09 (11.87–96.65)

13.23 (8.17–51.33)

  1. Mortality and malaria data aggregated by 4 to 5-year periods (i.e. 2007–2010 and 2011–2015)
  2. aThe effects are presented as the median of mortality rate ratios (RR) and 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals (BCI) adjusted for geographical variation and other predictors
  3. bAge-adjusted
  4. cThey are obtained from different models. Estimates of the rest of the predictors are from the models with confirmed malaria and do not differ from the PP model. PP estimates are only provided for comparison purposes
  5. dMinimum distance in kilometres at which spatial correlation is less than 5%
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Malaria Journal

ISSN: 1475-2875

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