Fig. 3

Dependence of prevalence and of probability of elimination on settings. a Mean PfPR_0-99 before RCD for different combinations of transmission potential and case management. Each pixel represents 250 different RCD strategies with the maximum number of index cases that can be followed up, \(\iota_{max}\), and the search radius, \(\nu\), ranging from 1 to 50 and 0 to 50 respectively. b Predictions of probability of elimination for all strategies and settings. Probabilities were generated using a Gaussian Process classifier (c-classification, radial kernel) for each setting where it was previously identified that the elimination outcome is RCD strategy dependent. At EIR = 5 too few simulations reached elimination to generate contour plots. E₁₄ is the probability of effective treatment of any clinical case within 14 days