Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

Malaria Journal

Table 2 Contingency analysis for interruption of transmission with RCD stratified by case management levels

E₁₄ (%)	Transmission interrupted		Total		Effectiveness	PAF (%)^a	p-value†
E₁₄ (%)	RCD+ (e₁)	RCD− (e₀)	RCD+(n₁)	RCD− (n₀)	Effectiveness	PAF (%)^a	p-value†
13.9	4421	87	10,000	400	0.51 (0.41, 0.59)	49.8 (39.7, 58.2)	< 0.001
21.8 (REF)	5618	130	10,000	400	0.42 (0.33, 0.50)	41.2 (32.4, 48.8)	< 0.001
26.0	6023	121	10,000	400	0.50 (0.42, 0.57)	48.8 (40.7, 55.8)	< 0.001
36.7	6760	150	10,000	400	0.44 (0.37, 0.51)	43.6 (36.1, 50.2)	< 0.001
46.1	7586	218	10,000	400	0.28 (0.21, 0.34)	27.4 (20.7, 33.5)	< 0.001
54.6	7883	224	10,000	400	0.29 (0.22, 0.35)	28.2 (21.8, 34.0)	< 0.001
62.1	8510	191	10,000	400	0.44 (0.38, 0.49)	42.9 (36.9, 48.4)	< 0.001
68.9	8604	244	10,000	400	0.29 (0.23, 0.35)	28.3 (22.6, 33.6)	< 0.001
Total	55,405	1365	80,000	3200	0.38 (0.36, 0.41)	37.5 (35.0, 39.9)	< 0.001

The total number of simulation runs at each case management level is 11,400 with 11,000 RCD+ and 400 RCD−. E₁₄ is the probability of effective treatment of any clinical case within 14 days. REF indicates the reference scenario
^aWald confidence limits
†Chi-squared

ISSN: 1475-2875