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Table 2 Consideration of possible pathways to harm affecting human health

From: Problem formulation for gene drive mosquitoes designed to reduce malaria transmission in Africa: results from four regional consultations 2016–2018

A Protection goal: human health

Harm: Increase in non‐malarial disease due to other vectors

Step

Pathway to harm

Plausibility

Additional information needed

1

Introduction of the gene drive mosquito

Given

Literature review, including information/evidence from other control programmes that have eliminated An. gambiaea

2

Population of An. gambiae declines

Likely

3

Ecological niche opens up providing room for the expansion of another vector population

Likely

4

Increased possibility of disease transmission

Likely

5

Other diseases increase (e.g. filariasis, arbovirus, etc.)

Likely

B Protection goal: human health

Harm: The modification makes the mosquito capable of transmitting new pathogens, causing new diseases in humans

Step

Pathway to harm

Plausibility

Additional information needed

1

Introduction of the gene drive mosquito

Given

Capability of mosquitoes to support the development of other pathogensb

2

The modification causes unintended effects due to pleiotropy

Unknown

3

Pleiotropic effect renders mosquito capable of being a vector for new pathogens

Unknown

4

New/unknown pathogens cause a new disease in humans

Unknown

  1. A. Suppression Drive, Case Study #3 B. Modification Drive, Case Study #2
  2. a[24] provides additional information regarding disease carried by other mosquito species
  3. b[25] provides additional information on the evolution of vector competence in An. gambiae and mutations affecting parasite virulence [26]