Table 2 Challenges and their potential implications for a productive interaction between modelling teams and NMCP staff

No previous experience with country modelling at that level of detail, hence need to create process

Short timelines especially by external donors

Insufficient time of NMCP staff for required activities

Delays by NMCP in data sharing

Delays by modellers in getting a clear understanding of the available data in order to increase accuracy of model parameters based on the available data

Use of a complex transmission model and long processing time of simulations

Need for NMCP to invest required time in interactions—depending critical on NMCP understanding value of modelling and the process of interactions

Prolonged time for model set up and calibration

Delays in modelling deliverables and missed opportunities to inform key decisions

Additional resources needed to extend the project period in order to adequately improve technical aspect and standardize processes to provide timely deliverables

Low spatial resolution for most indicators and temporal data gaps

Use of most of the available data to inform the model while reducing the number of assumptions made

Inclusion of model complexities and uncertainties while simplifying the model to shorten simulation time

Increased uncertainty in model parameters and predictions and impossibility to use model predictions at a higher resolution

Undermining of model usefulness and credibility and potential reluctance towards future modelling applications

Maintaining communication between in-country visits between modelling team and NMCP

Need to use a simplified language without leaving out relevant technical details

Transparency on model limitations and uncertainty without undermining perceived modelling value

Negative perception towards modelling by some stakeholders

Misunderstanding the role of modelling as a replacement instead of an addition to data

Loss of interest in modelling process that could potentially lead to a negative perception of its use.

Constant need to highlight the practical contribution made by models and the process of interaction with NMCP

Conflicting deadlines for activities at the NMCP level

Difficulty to find in-country personnel to train for taking over the methodology

Project funding with a focus on short term deliverables rather than long-term support

Dependency on external modeller and temporary project funds that prevent sustained effort and gains of the initiative

Missed opportunity for improvements and refinements to shape the model into a truly setting specific tool and use of its maximum potential