Health systems and global progress towards malaria elimination, 2000–2016

Malaria Journal

Table 3 Regression model results (coefficients and R-squared) for malaria case reductions and health system components, 2000–2016

	Health system component	Percent reduction in cases per capita, 2000–2016 (ß)			Reached 0 cases by 2016 (ß) (low-burden countries only)^†
	Model selection method	All	Backward stepwise	Grid search	All	Backward stepwise	Grid search
1	Health service delivery, routine services	4.2	5.1	4.9	− 0.05	Not selected	Not selected
2	Access to medicines	4.3	Not selected	Not selected	− 0.13	Not selected	Not selected
3	Health system workforce	0.6	Not selected	Not selected	0.02	Not selected	Not selected
4	Health system capacity: health centres	6.7	Not selected	6.6	− 0.10*	− 0.10*	− 0.10*
5	Health system capacity: hospitals	6.1	9.9*	6.9*	0.18	0.20**	0.20**
6	Governance	1.0	Not selected	Not selected	− 0.05	− 0.08	− 0.08
7	Health information systems	− 0.5	Not selected	Not selected	0.27	Not selected	Not selected

R² for model		0.20	0.17	0.20	0.45	0.41	0.41

All regressions adjust for HDI in 2000 and total health expenditure as percentage of GDP. Percent reduction models (columns I–III) also control for initial malaria burden category. Backward stepwise models exclude variables with p > 0.2 and include variables with p-values < 0.10. Grid search results reflect the model with lowest root mean squared error, among all models including up to 7 components
^†This analysis was conducted only among countries in the low burden category (< 1 case per 1000 in 2000)
*: Variable is significant at p < 0.05; **: Variable is significant at p < 0.01

ISSN: 1475-2875