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Table 3 Multivariable predictors of P. falciparum (A) and P. vivax (B) infections

From: The epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in East Sepik Province, Papua New Guinea, pre- and post-implementation of national malaria control efforts

A. Predictors of P. falciparum infections

 

2005 (N = 2486)

2012–2013 (N = 2370)

% Pf

aOR

95% CI

p-value

% Pf

aOR

95% CI

p-value

Female

55.5%

1.0

 

0.040

    

Male

57.3%

1.2

[1.01–1.4]

   

Anaemia

< 0.001

   

0.0029

 No

49.3%

1.0

 

3.8%

1.0

 

 Mild

51.2%

1.2

[0.95–1.6]

5.0%

1.1

[0.6–2.0]

 Moderate

60.0%

1.8

[1.4–2.3]

12.0%

1.9

[1.1–3.2]

 Severe

71.7%

3.4

[2.0–5.6]

28.1%

3.9

[1.6–9.8]

Age group

< 0.001

   

0.103

 0–3

25.8%

1.0

 

6.0%

1.0

 

 > 3–6

44.4%

2.9

[1.8–4.4]

8.7%

3.2

[0.7–15.3]

 > 6–9

59.5%

5.1

[3.3–7.6]

12.0%

4.6

[1.0–22.0]

 > 9–12

70.2%

8.2

[5.2–12.]

10.7%

4.1

[0.9–19.6]

 > 12–20

73.6%

12.9

[8.3–19.]

9.2%

7.1

[1.5–34.5]

 > 20

54.1%

4.7

[3.1–6.8]

6.3%

4.0

[0.9–18.1]

Current or recent reported febrile illness

    

0.0050

 No

   

6.8%

1.0

 

 Yes

   

14.8%

2.0

[1.3–3.1]

P. vivax infected by qPCR

    

< 0.001

 No

   

5.6%

1.0

 

 Yes

   

48.1%

5.6

[3.4–9.1]

Village

< 0.001

   

< 0.001

 5. Ilahita 3

57.4%

1.0

 

2.1%

1.0

 

 6. Ilahita 4

55.0%

1.0

[0.60–1.5]

3.0%

1.4

[0.3-6.0]

 7. Sunuhu

81.9%

3.8

[2.2–6.2]

51.4%

26.2

[7.8–88.1]

 4. Urita

61.0%

1.1

[0.71–1.8]

5.0%

1.7

[0.4–6.9]

 3. Salata

NA

  

6.1%

2.7

[0.7–9.9]

 2. Waragom

68.6%

1.6

[0.97–2.5]

16.7%

8.0

[2.2–29.4]

 12. Jama

38.8%

0.4

[0.2–0.6]

3.9%

1.8

[0.4–7.8]

 13. Sengo

54.3%

0.8

[0.48–1.2]

7.5%

4.2

[1.2–14.5]

 14. Maiwi

48.0%

0.6

[0.35–0.9]

13.4%

6.6

[1.7–25.8]

 15. Malba 1

49.7%

0.7

[0.47–1.1]

1.3%

0.6

[0.1–2.9]

 16. Malba 2

58.6%

1.2

[0.73–1.8]

3.6%

2.2

[0.6–8.6]

 17. Yenigo

50.3%

0.9

[0.55–1.3]

0.6%

0.4

[0.0–3.7]

 10. Wapindumaka

NA

  

3.8%

2.1

[0.5–8.5]

 11. Wombisa

53.5%

0.8

[0.51–1.3]

1.0%

0.5

[0.08–3.0]

 8. Wapin

49.3%

0.8

[0.47–1.2]

NA

  

 1. Bonohi

56.4%

1.1

[0.68–1.7]

NA

  

 9. Bangeleko

59.5%

1.0

[0.63–1.6]

NA

  

B. Predictors of P. vivax infections

 

2005 (N = 2441)

2013 (N = 2324)

%

aOR

95% CI

p

%

aOR

95% CI

p

Recent reported anti-malarial treatment

< 0.001

    

 No

38.3%

1

     

 Yes

22.1%

0.4

[0.3–0.6]

    

Current or recent reported febrile illness

0.006

    

 No

37.9%

1.0

     

 Yes

25.6%

0.6

[0.4–0.9]

    

 Female

34.8%

1.0

 

0.077

    

 Male

39.5%

1.2

[0.98–1.4]

    

Age group

< 0.001

   

0.0030

 0–3

24.3%

1.0

 

6.5%

1.0

 

 > 3–6

49.0%

3.0

[1.9–4.7]

7.5%

1.4

[0.3–5.8]

 > 6–9

48.7%

2.8

[1.9–4.3]

10.7%

2.2

[0.5–9.1]

 > 9–12

53.1%

3.4

[2.2–5.3]

11.7%

2.8

[0.7–11.8]

 > 12–20

37.1%

1.7

[1.1–2.6]

5.8%

1.3

[0.3–5.2]

 > 20

29.7%

1.1

[0.8–1.7]

3.8%

0.9

[0.2–3.7]

P. falciparum infected by qPCR

    

< 0.001

 No

   

3.3%

1.0

 

 Yes

   

32.7%

4.9

[3.1–7.8]

Village

0.0012

   

< 0.001

 5. Ilahita 3

38.6%

1.0

 

2.1%

1.0

 

 6. Ilahita 4

37.8%

1.1

[0.7–1.7]

2.4%

1.1

[0.2–5.1]

 7. Sunuhu

40.3%

1.1

[0.7–1.8]

36.0%

11.9

[3.5–40.4]

 4. Urita

46.9%

1.3

[0.8–2.1]

9.0%

4.2

[1.2–14.9]

 3. Salata

NA

  

5.3%

2.4

[0.7–8.6]

 2. Waragom

42.0%

1.1

[0.7–1.7]

8.4%

3.5

[0.9–13.7]

 12. Jama

29.1%

0.6

[0.4–1.0]

3.1%

1.3

[0.3–6.1]

 13. Sengo

26.2%

0.5

[0.3–0.8]

4.4%

1.8

[0.5–6.3]

 14. Maiwi

36.4%

0.8

[0.5–1.3]

2.9%

0.9

[0.1–5.4]

 15. Malba 1

44.9%

1.2

[0.7–1.9]

1.6%

0.7

[0.2–3.4]

 16. Malba 2

42.2%

1.1

[0.7–1.8]

1.7%

0.7

[0.1–3.4]

 17. Yenigo

36.9%

0.9

[0.5–1.4]

NA

  

 10. Wapindumaka

NA

  

0.5%

0.2

[0.02–2.0]

 11. Wombisa

34.9%

0.8

[0.5–1.3]

0.5%

0.2

[0.02–2.3]

 8. Wapin

29.9%

0.6

[0.4–1.1]

NA

  

 1. Bonohi

34.7%

0.8

[0.5–1.3]

NA

  

 9. Bangeleko

33.1%

0.7

[0.4–1.1]

NA

  
  1. % indicate proportion infected with P. falciparum or P. vivax detected by LDR-FMA (2005) or qPCR (2013) and/or LM within the designated group
  2. aOR multivariable adjusted odds ratio, CI confidence interval
  3. Italics p-values are considered statistically significant (p < 0.05)