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Table 3 Multivariable predictors of P. falciparum (A) and P. vivax (B) infections

From: The epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in East Sepik Province, Papua New Guinea, pre- and post-implementation of national malaria control efforts

A. Predictors of P. falciparum infections
  2005 (N = 2486) 2012–2013 (N = 2370)
% Pf aOR 95% CI p-value % Pf aOR 95% CI p-value
Female 55.5% 1.0   0.040     
Male 57.3% 1.2 [1.01–1.4]    
Anaemia < 0.001     0.0029
 No 49.3% 1.0   3.8% 1.0  
 Mild 51.2% 1.2 [0.95–1.6] 5.0% 1.1 [0.6–2.0]
 Moderate 60.0% 1.8 [1.4–2.3] 12.0% 1.9 [1.1–3.2]
 Severe 71.7% 3.4 [2.0–5.6] 28.1% 3.9 [1.6–9.8]
Age group < 0.001     0.103
 0–3 25.8% 1.0   6.0% 1.0  
 > 3–6 44.4% 2.9 [1.8–4.4] 8.7% 3.2 [0.7–15.3]
 > 6–9 59.5% 5.1 [3.3–7.6] 12.0% 4.6 [1.0–22.0]
 > 9–12 70.2% 8.2 [5.2–12.] 10.7% 4.1 [0.9–19.6]
 > 12–20 73.6% 12.9 [8.3–19.] 9.2% 7.1 [1.5–34.5]
 > 20 54.1% 4.7 [3.1–6.8] 6.3% 4.0 [0.9–18.1]
Current or recent reported febrile illness      0.0050
 No     6.8% 1.0  
 Yes     14.8% 2.0 [1.3–3.1]
P. vivax infected by qPCR      < 0.001
 No     5.6% 1.0  
 Yes     48.1% 5.6 [3.4–9.1]
Village < 0.001     < 0.001
 5. Ilahita 3 57.4% 1.0   2.1% 1.0  
 6. Ilahita 4 55.0% 1.0 [0.60–1.5] 3.0% 1.4 [0.3-6.0]
 7. Sunuhu 81.9% 3.8 [2.2–6.2] 51.4% 26.2 [7.8–88.1]
 4. Urita 61.0% 1.1 [0.71–1.8] 5.0% 1.7 [0.4–6.9]
 3. Salata NA    6.1% 2.7 [0.7–9.9]
 2. Waragom 68.6% 1.6 [0.97–2.5] 16.7% 8.0 [2.2–29.4]
 12. Jama 38.8% 0.4 [0.2–0.6] 3.9% 1.8 [0.4–7.8]
 13. Sengo 54.3% 0.8 [0.48–1.2] 7.5% 4.2 [1.2–14.5]
 14. Maiwi 48.0% 0.6 [0.35–0.9] 13.4% 6.6 [1.7–25.8]
 15. Malba 1 49.7% 0.7 [0.47–1.1] 1.3% 0.6 [0.1–2.9]
 16. Malba 2 58.6% 1.2 [0.73–1.8] 3.6% 2.2 [0.6–8.6]
 17. Yenigo 50.3% 0.9 [0.55–1.3] 0.6% 0.4 [0.0–3.7]
 10. Wapindumaka NA    3.8% 2.1 [0.5–8.5]
 11. Wombisa 53.5% 0.8 [0.51–1.3] 1.0% 0.5 [0.08–3.0]
 8. Wapin 49.3% 0.8 [0.47–1.2] NA   
 1. Bonohi 56.4% 1.1 [0.68–1.7] NA   
 9. Bangeleko 59.5% 1.0 [0.63–1.6] NA   
B. Predictors of P. vivax infections
  2005 (N = 2441) 2013 (N = 2324)
% aOR 95% CI p % aOR 95% CI p
Recent reported anti-malarial treatment < 0.001     
 No 38.3% 1      
 Yes 22.1% 0.4 [0.3–0.6]     
Current or recent reported febrile illness 0.006     
 No 37.9% 1.0      
 Yes 25.6% 0.6 [0.4–0.9]     
 Female 34.8% 1.0   0.077     
 Male 39.5% 1.2 [0.98–1.4]     
Age group < 0.001     0.0030
 0–3 24.3% 1.0   6.5% 1.0  
 > 3–6 49.0% 3.0 [1.9–4.7] 7.5% 1.4 [0.3–5.8]
 > 6–9 48.7% 2.8 [1.9–4.3] 10.7% 2.2 [0.5–9.1]
 > 9–12 53.1% 3.4 [2.2–5.3] 11.7% 2.8 [0.7–11.8]
 > 12–20 37.1% 1.7 [1.1–2.6] 5.8% 1.3 [0.3–5.2]
 > 20 29.7% 1.1 [0.8–1.7] 3.8% 0.9 [0.2–3.7]
P. falciparum infected by qPCR      < 0.001
 No     3.3% 1.0  
 Yes     32.7% 4.9 [3.1–7.8]
Village 0.0012     < 0.001
 5. Ilahita 3 38.6% 1.0   2.1% 1.0  
 6. Ilahita 4 37.8% 1.1 [0.7–1.7] 2.4% 1.1 [0.2–5.1]
 7. Sunuhu 40.3% 1.1 [0.7–1.8] 36.0% 11.9 [3.5–40.4]
 4. Urita 46.9% 1.3 [0.8–2.1] 9.0% 4.2 [1.2–14.9]
 3. Salata NA    5.3% 2.4 [0.7–8.6]
 2. Waragom 42.0% 1.1 [0.7–1.7] 8.4% 3.5 [0.9–13.7]
 12. Jama 29.1% 0.6 [0.4–1.0] 3.1% 1.3 [0.3–6.1]
 13. Sengo 26.2% 0.5 [0.3–0.8] 4.4% 1.8 [0.5–6.3]
 14. Maiwi 36.4% 0.8 [0.5–1.3] 2.9% 0.9 [0.1–5.4]
 15. Malba 1 44.9% 1.2 [0.7–1.9] 1.6% 0.7 [0.2–3.4]
 16. Malba 2 42.2% 1.1 [0.7–1.8] 1.7% 0.7 [0.1–3.4]
 17. Yenigo 36.9% 0.9 [0.5–1.4] NA   
 10. Wapindumaka NA    0.5% 0.2 [0.02–2.0]
 11. Wombisa 34.9% 0.8 [0.5–1.3] 0.5% 0.2 [0.02–2.3]
 8. Wapin 29.9% 0.6 [0.4–1.1] NA   
 1. Bonohi 34.7% 0.8 [0.5–1.3] NA   
 9. Bangeleko 33.1% 0.7 [0.4–1.1] NA   
  1. % indicate proportion infected with P. falciparum or P. vivax detected by LDR-FMA (2005) or qPCR (2013) and/or LM within the designated group
  2. aOR multivariable adjusted odds ratio, CI confidence interval
  3. Italics p-values are considered statistically significant (p < 0.05)