Table 1 Parameter values

pc1

0.90

0.90

0.80

Probability of naive progressing into Ic

Estimated

pa1

0.35

0.07

0.58

Probability of naive progressing into Ia

Estimated

pc2

0.14

0.19

0.14

Probability of non-naive progressing into Ic

Estimated

pa2

0.61

0.39

0.49

Probability of non-naive progressing into Ia

Estimated

Ps

0.130

0.065

0.062

Probability of progressing into severe disease

[52]

pt1

0.87

0.88

0.88

Probability of being tested/diagnosed for uncomplicated malaria

[53]

Ppc

0.81

0.70

0.80

Proportion of pregnant women from L3 progressing to Ic

Estimated

Ppa

0.250

0.075

0.540

Proportion of pregnant women from L3 progressing to Ia

Estimated

X

0.01

0.01

0.01

Probability of progressing from Ia to Ic

Estimated

m1

0.57

0.10

0.10

Probability of infection among children under 6 years and pregnant women

Estimated

m2

0.77

0.22

0.20

Probability of infection among non-naive population 6 years and above

Estimated

Pst

0.80

0.71

0.73

Probability of seeking treatment at the health facility

[53]

Prob_inf

0.50

Probability of a bite resulting into a mosquito being infected or a human being infected following a bite from an mosquito

[15]

Pn

0.125

0.125

0.125

Proportion of population of children under 6 years

[54]

Pm

0.874375

0.87425

0.8744125

Proportion of population 6 years and above

[15]

pt2

0.99

0.99

0.99

Probability of being treated with QUININE

[55]

ah1

0.385

0.385

0.385

Proportion non-adherent to ACT treatment

[56]

ah2

0.092

0.082

0.082

Proportion non-adherent to QUININE treatment

[55, 57]

Px

0.025

Proportion of pregnant women in the population

[54]

rs1

0.04

0.04

0.04

Resistance against ACT (day 28 PCR-corrected failure rate (0.8–4.0%) for ASAQ and AL

[58]

rs2

0.01

0.01

0.01

Resistance against QUININE, intramusclar ARTEMETHER (day 28 parasitaemia failure rate)

[59]

rs3

0.0962

0.0962

0.0962

Resistance against SP (day 28 PCR-corrected failure rate (0.0962) for SP

[60]

ac1

0.134

0.126

0.112

Probability of asymptomatic malaria among pregnant women at ANC

[61,62,63]

ac2

0.097

0.097

0.097

Probability of sub-microscopic infection among pregnant women at ANC

[54]

pt3

0.367

Proportion of pregnant women taking up at least 3 dose

[64]

ah3

0.633

Proportion of pregnant women not taking up at least 3 doses

[64]

Nn

5.1 × 10⁶

17.1 × 10⁶

8.1 × 10⁶

Human population size (2018 mid-year estimated) (number)

DHIMS2

Ln

25

30.6

23.5

birth/death rate per 1000 population (year⁻¹)

[65,66,67]

Kv

7.8 × 10⁵

4.2 × 10⁷

2.5 × 10⁷

Carrying capacity of the environment for larva and pupae stages of mosquitoes (ha⁻¹)

estimated

LLIN

0.398

Protective efficacy of LLINs against malaria (based on the IRR^a or OR^b)

[31]

IRS

0.285

Protective efficacy of IRS against malaria (based on the IRR^a or OR^b)

[31]

Ss

365.25/5

Rate of progressing into severe disease (day⁻¹)

[68]

Q

365.25/194

Duration of progressing from Ia into Ic (day⁻¹)

[33, 56, 69]

gamma

365.25/21

Duration of latent period in human population (day⁻¹)

[70]

t1

365.25/3

Duration after onset of illness ACT treatment was sought (day⁻¹)

[70]

rho1

365.25/3

Recovery rate after ACT treatment (day⁻¹)

[70, 71]

rho2

365.25/6

Recovery rate after QUININE treatment (day⁻¹)

[72]

V

52/5.5

Rate of recovery from Ia to Ism without treatment (week⁻¹)

[73]

Nr

365.25/130

Rate of natural recovery from infection (day⁻¹)

[74]

AC

365.25/30

Rate of antenatal attendance (day⁻¹)

[75]

Hlsp

365.25/8

Rate of recovering after SP treatment at ANC (day⁻¹)

[76]

RDTMicSens

0.49

Average sensitivity of RDTs and Microscopy in health facilities (proportion)

[77]

Reporting

0.969

0.966

0.947

Reporting probability of uncomplicated malaria at health facility (proportion)

Data from NMCP