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Table 2 Factors associated with the proportion of recrudescences that were symptomatic

From: Asymptomatic recrudescence after artemether–lumefantrine treatment for uncomplicated falciparum malaria: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Variable(s) included and regression parameter(s)

WAIC

Akaike Weight

Parameter values (95% CI)

Odds ratios (95% CI)

PfPR2-10 (\(\beta_{1}\)), per 10% increase

Only young children enrolled (≤ 72 months) (\(\beta_{3}\))

506.5

0.25

\(\beta_{1}\)  = − 0.154 (− 0.230, − 0.075)

\(\beta_{3}\)  = 0.48 (0.01, 0.95)

0.86 (0.79, 0.93)

1.62 (1.01, 2.59)

PfPR2-10 (\(\beta_{1}\)), per 10% increase

Follow-up duration > 28 days (\(\beta_{2}\)),

Only young children enrolled (\(\beta_{3}\))

506.9

0.20

\(\beta_{1}\)  = − 0.159 (− 0.239, − 0.08)

\(\beta_{2}\)   = − 0.26 (− 0.69, 0.16)

\(\beta_{3}\)  = 0.48 (0.00, 0.94)

0.85 (0.79, 0.92)

0.77 (0.50, 1.17)

1.62 (1.00, 2.56)

PfPR2-10 (\(\beta_{1}\)), per 10% increase

Only young children enrolled (\(\beta_{3}\)),

High density infections enrolled (\(\beta_{4}\)) (baseline parasitaemia \(\ge 2 \times 10^{5}\) parasites/µl)

507.6

0.15

\(\beta_{1}\)  = − 0.174 (− 0.265, − 0.076)

\(\beta_{3}\)  = 0.44 (− 0.04, 0.93)

\(\beta_{4}\)  = 0.24 (− 0.41, 0.86)

0.84 (0.77, 0.93)

1.55 (0.96, 2.53)

1.27 (0.66, 2.36)

PfPR2-10 (\(\beta_{1}\)), per 10% increase

Follow-up duration > 28 days (\(\beta_{2}\)),

Only young children enrolled (\(\beta_{3}\)),

High density infections enrolled (\(\beta_{4}\))

507.9

0.12

\(\beta_{1}\)  = − 0.180 (− 0.274, − 0.082)

\(\beta_{2}\)  = − 0.27 (− 0.7, 0.15)

\(\beta_{3}\)  = 0.44 (− 0.04, 0.93)

\(\beta_{4}\)  = 0.26 (− 0.40, 0.90)

0.84 (0.76, 0.92)

0.76 (0.5, 1.16)

1.55 (0.96, 2.53)

1.30 (0.67, 2.46)

PfPR2-10 (\(\beta_{1}\)) per 10% increase

508.8

0.08

\(\beta_{1}\)  = − 0.134 (− 0.208, − 0.058)

0.87 (0.81, 0.94)

  1. A number of uni- and multivariable regression models were fitted to the data and compared. The variables included were: the MAP-estimated malaria prevalence in children 2–10 years of age at the time and location of each trial (PfPR2-10); the duration of follow-up in each trial; age range of the cohort enrolled; high-density infections included in the trial. The model fit was assessed by WAIC. The model that included variables for malaria prevalence and the age range of the cohort provided the best fit to the data. In addition, some of the other candidate models, ordered by WAIC, and the Akaike weight associated with each model in the ensemble, are described here. Parameter values and corresponding odds ratios are summarized by the posterior means and the 95% credible intervals