Fig. 4

Simulations of the effectiveness of SMC in Kita shows a simulations of the impact of SMC upon prevalence in ages 3 -59 months, with estimates from prevalence surveys, including the 2014 pre-intervention to which the simulations were calibrated are shown as green dots with bars showing binomial 95% confidence intervals, b simulated incidence of uncomplicated clinical malaria in children under 5 and c incidence of severe malaria in children under 5. In all plot simulations using model parameters from the median of the joint posterior distribution and modal values from the triangle-distributed uncertainty distributions are shown in dark lines (blue for simulations in the absence of SMC, salmon in the presence of SMC), shaded areas show 95% uncertainty intervals based upon the 1000 simulated parameter draws. * Note these are 1 year averages based on a 3 year cycle that takes into account the waning protective efficacy of LLINs