Fig. 1

Overview of modelling support in the process of sub-national tailoring of malaria interventions in Mainland Tanzania. Initial strategic planning meeting [21] that followed the expert consultative and midterm strategic planning meeting (see Runge et al. 2020 [25] for full timeline), that led to the a malaria risk stratification [16] as well as b pre-selection of potential intervention mixes per strata. d The malaria risk stratification and the intervention mixes together with a previously calibrated malaria transmission model [18] were used to generate intervention impact predictions per council. e The objective for the simulations and respective results were 1. the exploration of various intervention mixes at target coverage levels with or without strengthened case management, 2. the comparison of specific intervention scenarios to address some of the questions most relevant to the NMCP at the time of the analysis (questions denoted as a–c in results), and 3. the comparison of the simulated current strategy against the potential new strategy. f Modelling results together with NMCP performed analysis and review were discussed. g Formulation of the supplementary malaria midterm strategic plan (2018–2020 NMSP) [20]